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ZiPS have Padres making postseason in 60-game season

By Ryan Sikes|
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - MAY 2: A member of the Pad Squad holds up a banner after the San Diego Padres beat the Colorado Rockies at PETCO Park on May 2, 2016 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) *** Local Caption ***
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - MAY 2: A member of the Pad Squad holds up a banner after the San Diego Padres beat the Colorado Rockies at PETCO Park on May 2, 2016 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) *** Local Caption ***

Just hours after the MLB and MLBPA have agreed on a 2020 season, ZiPS projections have the Padres making the playoffs as a Wild Card team.

While Major League Baseball has announced that Spring Training 2.0 and the 2020 season will begin on July 1 and July 24, respectively, it remains to be seen whether the Padres will actually take the field, given how prevalent the COVID-19 pandemic still remains. Aside from the Phillies and Blue Jays ballclubs, the Rockies recently announced that several of their players, including Charlie Blackmon, have tested positive.

But as it stands, the season will tentatively commence at the end of July salvaging a highly anticipated sophomore year from Fernando Tatis Jr. and the welcome additions of guys like Tommy Pham and Zach Davies. And according to Fangraphs’ ZiPS projections, the Padres will be headed to the postseason, grabbing the second wild-card spot with an overall record of 32-28.

Four games above .500 put the Padres six games back of the first-place Dodgers, with just a 21.4 percent to win the division. But according to the projections, the Padres have a 20.6 percent chance to win a Wild Card spot, 42.0 percent chance to make the playoffs, and 3.7 percent chance to win the World Series.

Insert “So you’re telling me there’s a chance” gif from Dumb and Dumber.

Obviously, with just 60 games there is little room for error and a missed call here or there can change the outcome of a couple of games, altering the course for a talented National League.

These projections mean little, but they are interesting to look at. And taking a straight ratio of a full season down to 60 games, the Padres lineup would have the following statistics:

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.: .281/.346/.512, 8 HR, 22 RBI
  • Tommy Pham: .271/.368/.457, 8 HR, 23 RBI
  • Manny Machado: .270/.337/.490, 13 HR, 37 RBI
  • Eric Hosmer: .262/.320/.425, 8 HR, 33 RBI
  • Wil Myers: .240/.318/.440, 8 HR, 24 RBI
  • Trent Grisham: .240/.342/.430, 7 HR, 25 RBI
  • Jurickson Profar: .247/.331/.420, 6 HR, 22 RBI
  • Francisco Mejia: .251/.299/.412, 4 HR, 16 RBI
  • Franchy Cordero: .221/.285/.421, 5 HR, 17 RBI

Other notables:

  • Austin Hedges: .218/.274/.403, 6 HR, 19 RBI
  • Ty France: .255/.330/.426, 7 HR, 27 RBI
  • Josh Naylor: .258/.329/.417, 6 HR, 25 RBI
  • Greg Garcia: .241/.351/.337, 2 HR, 9 RBI

If the Padres can get those numbers from Hedges, even in an abbreviated season, you’d have to be thrilled.

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