Padres: How playoff odds are impacted by 50-game season
By Ryan Sikes
If the league decides to proceed with a 50 game season, what would the Padres playoff chances look like?
As expected, MLB owners have rejected the players union’s proposal for a 114-game schedule, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The owners will reportedly not respond with a new offer. Instead, the league is marrying itself to a shortened season, as in like 50 games.
Fifty games are less than one-third of a normal schedule and would provide little room for error. Keep in mind that the Washington Nationals were 19-31 through the first 50, and you start to question, in this scenario, if the eventual champion is actually legit?
Teams can have hot periods throughout a season and, in the same token, go through just dreadful slumps. A 162-game schedule allows us to see those ups and downs, but it appears that this year is 50 games or bust.
Per Fangraphs, the Padres were projected, under normal circumstances, to win 84 games and squeak into the playoffs. As a perfect example of the roller coaster, the Friars sat at an even 45-45 after the first half but landed at a miserable 70-92 finish. But through the first 50 games, they sat at 26-24 and had a 14.1 percent chance of going to the postseason.
Obviously, previous years were not as kind to them simply because the roster lacked the talent that it currently does.
But assuming the league can force a mandated 50-game season this year, the Padres, using the same win percentage, would finish 26-24. Would that be good enough to get into an expanded playoff scenario?