San Diego Padres: Predictions, comparisons for Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet

Who does Dinelson Lamet closely resemble?

Likewise, Lamet is pegged for a similar season like 2019, logging a 4.09 ERA with 138 strikeouts in 110.0 innings. But Fangraphs sees him struggling a bit with his command, allowing 53 walks (4.34 BB/9), which would also explain the uptick in wild pitches with 12 in his 23 starts.

As a guy who primarily relies on his off-speed pitches, they aren’t always going to break in the desired direction, which will result in an increased number of walks. According to Baseball Savant, Lamet closely profiles to Tyler Duffey, which is interesting given that the latter converted to a relief pitcher before the 2017 season.

That would be interesting if Lamet were to travel the same path either due to recurring injuries or prospects signaling the move. At any rate, let’s compare their 2019 seasons as well as Duffey’s first full season as a starter in 2016:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

I think what immediately jumps out to me is Duffey’s GB/FB ratio in 2016 (0.92). However, it would seem that balls hit in the air left the yard. Comparing their 2019 seasons, the duo had similar home run rate and strikeout percentages, GB/FB ratios, and line-drive rates. Lamet didn’t have as much control, and balls put in play were hit for a relatively high percentage of extra-base hits.

To wrap this up, I think that both Paddack and Lamet are going to be solid starters this year. Obviously, the coronavirus pandemic puts a wrench in the timing of the season, but I think the shortened season could benefit both of them in what was expected to be a full season of work.

I still think that Paddack needs to develop another pitch to keep hitters off-balance, but his stuff was dominant last year. Only five times last year did he allow four or more runs, and three of those occurrences came in August. Lamet has “ace” stuff, but I would like for him to clean up his command this year. He needs to limit the number of free passes, and he could potentially enter the Cy Young conversation.

But until he proves that he can reduce the walks, I like Paddack to post better numbers this season. Thanks for allowing me to nerd out here.