San Diego Padres: Predictions, comparisons for Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet

Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet will headline the San Diego Padres rotation this season. But who will have the better year?

Both Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet were never part of the San Diego Padres plans but were openly welcomed as the former was an eighth-round draft pick of the Miami Marlins in the 2015 MLB Draft. He came over to the Friars in the Fernando Rodney deal in June 2016, and not a month after being traded, Paddack was diagnosed with a torn UCL. He needed Tommy John surgery, and his season was done.

Likewise, Lamet was originally signed by the Philadelphia Phillies as an international free agent in 2012, but an error in his paperwork allowed the Padres to swoop in a sign him two years later. He made his major league debut on May 25, 2017, and was named the Opening Day starter for the 2018 season. However, he, too, tore his UCL and required surgery.

Paddack pitched his first full season in the big leagues last year and posted a 3.33 ERA in 26 starts. He struck out 153 batters in 140.2 innings and made his final start on September 17 due to workload restrictions. Lamet returned to the mound on July 4 last year, making 14 starts to close out the year, and posted a 4.07 ERA while striking out 105 batters in 73.0 innings.

Now pegged as being dark horses for the Cy Young Award, the duo is undoubtedly going to make for an outstanding 1-2 combination at the top of the rotation. Both players will look to remain healthy in what figures to be a solid Padres’ rotation overall, but let’s try to predict who might have the better year.

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Both guys have fantastic pitches in their arsenal

The 23-year-old Paddack mixed in his four-seam fastball, 61 percent of his total pitches, with a changeup (28.5 percent) and a curveball (10.4 percent) last year. His primary pitch is league-average in velocity at 93.9 mph, while both his changeup and curveball are on the lower end of league-average at 84.5 and 76.1 mph, respectively.

Paddack’s curveball is well below league-average in terms of spin rate, as it falls on the lower end of the vertical and horizontal movement spectrum. Pitchers with great curveballs, like Stephen Strasburg, have a 2,770 rpm spin rate on this pitch while Paddack sits near 2,150 rpm.

Since spin rate has been recorded in 2015, Strasburg’s has improved each year, in large part because of technology that is widely available these days. I would expect similar growth for Paddack as he continues to develop.

*Images courtesy of Baseball Savant

Dinelson Lamet is a little bit ahead of the curve (no pun intended), as his secondary pitches have had scouts raving. He’s at the top end of all his pitches with both his curveball and changeup vastly exceeding league-average velocities. With all five pitches in his arsenal sitting between 85.5 and 96.3 mph, it’s incredibly challenging for hitters to separate pitches.

Lamet already has a 2,710 rpm spin rate on his curveball, which is incredible to think about. His second season of pitching in a big-league rotation, separated by Tommy John surgery, and he’s able to produce terrific spin. Both his curveball and slider were great “out” pitches for him last year, accounting for 66.4 percent of his outs.

*Images courtesy of Baseball Savant

It’s interesting to breakdown these players because you truly gain a sense of how different they are. Paddack is more of a power pitcher limiting opponents to a .204 batting average on his fastball that displays better than league-average vertical movement. At the same time, Lamet relies heavily on his secondary pitches as opponents were able to hit .323 and .340 off his four-seam and sinker fastball, respectively.

Who does Dinelson Lamet closely resemble?

Likewise, Lamet is pegged for a similar season like 2019, logging a 4.09 ERA with 138 strikeouts in 110.0 innings. But Fangraphs sees him struggling a bit with his command, allowing 53 walks (4.34 BB/9), which would also explain the uptick in wild pitches with 12 in his 23 starts.

As a guy who primarily relies on his off-speed pitches, they aren’t always going to break in the desired direction, which will result in an increased number of walks. According to Baseball Savant, Lamet closely profiles to Tyler Duffey, which is interesting given that the latter converted to a relief pitcher before the 2017 season.

That would be interesting if Lamet were to travel the same path either due to recurring injuries or prospects signaling the move. At any rate, let’s compare their 2019 seasons as well as Duffey’s first full season as a starter in 2016:

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I think what immediately jumps out to me is Duffey’s GB/FB ratio in 2016 (0.92). However, it would seem that balls hit in the air left the yard. Comparing their 2019 seasons, the duo had similar home run rate and strikeout percentages, GB/FB ratios, and line-drive rates. Lamet didn’t have as much control, and balls put in play were hit for a relatively high percentage of extra-base hits.

To wrap this up, I think that both Paddack and Lamet are going to be solid starters this year. Obviously, the coronavirus pandemic puts a wrench in the timing of the season, but I think the shortened season could benefit both of them in what was expected to be a full season of work.

I still think that Paddack needs to develop another pitch to keep hitters off-balance, but his stuff was dominant last year. Only five times last year did he allow four or more runs, and three of those occurrences came in August. Lamet has “ace” stuff, but I would like for him to clean up his command this year. He needs to limit the number of free passes, and he could potentially enter the Cy Young conversation.

But until he proves that he can reduce the walks, I like Paddack to post better numbers this season. Thanks for allowing me to nerd out here.