San Diego Padres: Predictions, comparisons for Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet

Both guys have fantastic pitches in their arsenal

The 23-year-old Paddack mixed in his four-seam fastball, 61 percent of his total pitches, with a changeup (28.5 percent) and a curveball (10.4 percent) last year. His primary pitch is league-average in velocity at 93.9 mph, while both his changeup and curveball are on the lower end of league-average at 84.5 and 76.1 mph, respectively.

Paddack’s curveball is well below league-average in terms of spin rate, as it falls on the lower end of the vertical and horizontal movement spectrum. Pitchers with great curveballs, like Stephen Strasburg, have a 2,770 rpm spin rate on this pitch while Paddack sits near 2,150 rpm.

Since spin rate has been recorded in 2015, Strasburg’s has improved each year, in large part because of technology that is widely available these days. I would expect similar growth for Paddack as he continues to develop.

*Images courtesy of Baseball Savant

Dinelson Lamet is a little bit ahead of the curve (no pun intended), as his secondary pitches have had scouts raving. He’s at the top end of all his pitches with both his curveball and changeup vastly exceeding league-average velocities. With all five pitches in his arsenal sitting between 85.5 and 96.3 mph, it’s incredibly challenging for hitters to separate pitches.

Lamet already has a 2,710 rpm spin rate on his curveball, which is incredible to think about. His second season of pitching in a big-league rotation, separated by Tommy John surgery, and he’s able to produce terrific spin. Both his curveball and slider were great “out” pitches for him last year, accounting for 66.4 percent of his outs.

*Images courtesy of Baseball Savant

It’s interesting to breakdown these players because you truly gain a sense of how different they are. Paddack is more of a power pitcher limiting opponents to a .204 batting average on his fastball that displays better than league-average vertical movement. At the same time, Lamet relies heavily on his secondary pitches as opponents were able to hit .323 and .340 off his four-seam and sinker fastball, respectively.