San Diego Padres: What to make of Ty France's Fangraphs projections

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Fangraphs projects Ty France with regular playing time and tremendous production this year. Could the San Diego Padres find a place for him?

Good morning everyone. I hope you all had a nice weekend. I wanted to take an in-depth review of Ty France‘s Fangraphs’ projections and what they mean for the San Diego Padres this season.

With the 12th pick in the 34th round of the 2015 MLB Draft, the San Diego Padres select Ty France, San Diego State University. Those were the words, or something close to it, back in June 2015 at the MLB Draft headquarters in Secaucus, New Jersey. France slashed a combined .337/.432/.473 with 47 doubles, three triples, 14 home runs, and 130 RBI in three seasons on campus.

It’s fairly easy to understand how he slid that far in the draft. While the average and on-base percentage are attractive, he proved that he was never an extra-bases kind of player. And yet, Fangraphs projects him to become a regular player in 2020, posting eye-popping numbers. In 142 games, France is pegged for a .255/.330/.426 line with 19 home runs and 70 RBI (100 wRC+).

Last year, the 25-year-old split his time between El Paso and the big league roster. With the Padres, France posted a .234/.294/.402 line with seven home runs and 24 RBI in 69 games (wRC+ 83). Over the course of a full season, that roughly translates to 17 home runs and 57 RBI, somewhat similar to his projections.

France had a tremendous contact rate for pitches in the strike zone

He took walks at just a 4.5 percent clip while striking out 24.4 percent of the time. It’s no secret that the Padres, collectively, struggled in the latter department last season. France played 21 and 36 games at second and third base, respectively, last year and played error-free ball, for what it’s worth.

Had he qualified, his 85.2 percent contact rate for pitches in the strike zone would have put him with the likes of Juan Soto, Paul DeJong, and J.T. Realmuto. For a team looking to reduce the number of strikeouts, contact rate is an underrated statistic. The problem for him, based on last year’s stats, is that he rarely puts the barrel to the ball, connecting in just 5.9 percent of the pitches he saw.

As a result, he was mostly a groundball hitter (43.4 percent). And while it would seem that third base is where he’s most comfortable, is there a reasonable assumption that France could be the everyday second baseman?

I don’t think it’s out of the question given the way the other candidates performed in the limited spring training. He’s more than proven himself at Triple-A El Paso, posting a .399/.477/.770 line, which suggests that he’s progressing into an extra-base hitter as he continues to develop. But that has yet to translate to the big leagues.

Where does France need to improve?

I believe with regular playing time, France has the potential and the composition to become an everyday player that can contribute substantially. Unfortunately, it would appear that he has an uphill battle to climb to crack the 26-man roster. He does have two minor league options left, but again, he’s already proven himself there and had he qualified, he would have taken home the Pacific Coast League batting title.

At any rate and wherever he plays, France needs to improve his barrel percentage and elevating the ball. He also swung at 31.3 percent of the first pitches in his at-bats, so I’d like to see him work counts a bit longer and get something better to hit. That, alone, could potentially have a significant impact on his long-term ability to remain on the big league roster.

To wrap this up, Brian Dozier, Jurickson Profar, and Greg Garcia are likely to man second base. Accompanied by Jake Cronenworth‘s potential, it’s difficult to imagine France being a regular contributor to the big league roster unless Fangraphs foresees Fernando Tatis Jr. struggling to remain healthy again.

So it begs the question if the Padres should have him begin the year at Triple-A with the intent of trading him as a part of a package for assets? Or did they see enough last year and this spring to let him earn regular playing time?

dark. Next. Delay perfect time for Fernando Tatis Jr. extension

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San Diego Padres: What to make of Ty France’s Fangraphs projections

Fangraphs projects Ty France with regular playing time and tremendous production this year. Could the San Diego Padres find a place for him?

France had a tremendous contact rate for pitches in the strike zone

Where does France need to improve?

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