San Diego Padres: Predicting statistical leaders for 2020 season

Fernando Tatis Jr. will smack the most home runs

Manny Machado would have been the easy choice for this category. After all, the 27-year-old has averaged 34.8 home runs per year over the last five seasons, including 32 of them in 2019 in what was considered to be a down year offensively for him.

However, I am tabbing Fernando Tatis Jr. taking the home run crown for the Padres this year. The team’s rookie sensation was limited by injuries last season, including a season-ending stress reaction in his back in mid-August.

Health will be the primary concern in 2020 for Tatis, but he posted 22 home runs in 84 games in 2019. Over a 162-game span, that equates to approximately 42 home runs. I don’t expect him to play every game, but assuming he’s healthy, he should have no problem logging 150+ games this year.

Tatis was a primary contributor to the team’s overall strikeout tally, but that should ideally reduce as his experience increases. Look for him to post a monster season for the Friars.

Manny Machado will lead the team in RBI

If not home runs, Machado is going to lead the team in some other category. Perhaps, best sideburns? No? Then he’ll have to settle for runs batted in.  Last year, Eric Hosmer led the team with 99 RBI, and Machado finishing behind him with 85 RBI.

Tatis could make a compelling case for this as well, but if he remains in the leadoff spot, it’s going to be difficult to match the same production as someone who bats in the middle of the order. As noted, 2019 was a down year for Machado, but he posted a career-high 107 RBI in 2018 – split between the Orioles and Dodgers – and hadn’t finished with less than 90 since 2015 before last year.

I suspect that Machado’s contract expectations got the best of him last year, but in year two, his numbers should normalize. In a recent interview, he indicated that he had been working on squaring up the barrel to the ball this offseason.

This was coming on the heels of his worst barrel percentage (8.0), which was the lowest since 2015. Fangraphs pegs him for 33 home runs and an even 100 RBI, which should lead the team. Hosmer is another guy that could sneak his way up there, but the arrow may be trending downward on him now.

Dinelson Lamet will lead the pitching staff in wins

The most meaningless statistic for pitchers, yet still gets mentioned when introducing a player, Dinelson Lamet, will lead the team in wins. He was recently tabbed by Baseball America writer, Kyle Glaser, as his breakout pitcher for the upcoming season.

The author spoke highly of Lamet’s pitching arsenal and improving command, which should lead to him racking up a ton of strikeouts in 2020. A review of his pitch usage last year reveals that his curveball produced a .105 batting average and 48.3 percent whiff rate. His slider was also devastating, producing a .147 average and 51.3 percent whiff rate.

He returned from Tommy John surgery in early July and made 14 starts to close out his year. In those starts, Lamet struck out 105 batters over 73.0 innings but also allowed 30 walks.

Now entering his first full season since 2017, he’s projected to strikeout 138 batters in 110.0 innings or 23 starts. Fangraphs isn’t as high on him to reduce his walks, increasing from 3.70 BB/9 last year to a projected 4.34 BB/9.

Health is going to be critical for Lamet as well, and so far, so good in spring training. He’s made two starts and struck out seven batters in 5.0 innings while allowing no runs and just two hits.

Zach Davies will lead the team in earned run average

The easy choice here would have been Chris Paddack. The 24-year-old led the rotation with a 3.33 ERA in 26 starts. However, I believe there will be some league adjustment for Paddack in 2020, but I am not saying he’s going to post a clunker.

Fangraphs has him pegged for a 3.68 ERA in 28 starts this season. Those are very good numbers, but something about Zach Davies really intrigues me, especially displaying as much success in a hitters’ park in Miller Park.

He’s not going to blow anyone away with a blazing fastball, but Davies knows how to get batters out utilizing his off-speed pitches and deception. And outside of an injury-plagued 2018, he’s never posted a 4.00+ ERA season.

Now in a pitchers’ park in Petco Park, Davies also has a strong track record pitching within the divisional opponents’ home turf:

• Petco Park: four starts, 3.80 ERA
• Chase Field: two starts, 3.00 ERA
• Coors Field: one starts, 1.80 ERA
• Dodger Stadium: three starts, 0.86 ERA
• AT&T Park: two starts, 2.45 ERA

Davies is penciled in as the fourth starter, but I expect him to pitch like a number two starter in the Padres’ rotation. This is an excellent problem to have, and one that fans necessarily aren’t used to from previous seasons.