San Diego Padres: Three worst-case scenarios for the regular season

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The San Diego Padres have the roster to compete for a playoff spot this year, but these three scenarios could derail their plans of playing October baseball.

In 2019, the San Diego Padres had just about everything go wrong for them in the second half. Rookie sensation Fernando Tatis Jr.‘s season came to an abrupt end due to a stress reaction in his back. He finished with a .317 batting average and came in third in Rookie of the Year voting, but there’s no question his presence was missed as the team limped to a 70-92 finish.

The prize of the offseason, Manny Machado, batted just .242 in 69 games in the second half, including a .221 average in August and .193 in September. Could the pressure of a ten-year, $300 million deal have gotten the best of him in year one with the team? A strong argument can be made, but Machado has worked on squaring the barrel to the ball more often, so it would make sense for his numbers to normalize in 2020.

The bullpen was a strength for the Padres last year, and it will be again this year, especially adding both Drew Pomeranz and Emilio Pagan to the mix. Kirby Yates was arguably the most dominant closer in baseball, but the bullpen can only take the team as far as the starting rotation carries them.

But apparently, that wasn’t too far, as the rotation followed a respectable 4.38 staff ERA in the first half with a dreadful 5.05 ERA in the second half. After July 4, the rotation did see both Dinelson Lamet and Garrett Richards return from Tommy John surgery, but at that point, the season was already over.

Looking ahead to this year, the Padres figure to be a competitive team, and while they won’t be the favorites to win the NL West Division given the talent and depth that the Los Angeles Dodgers’ roster exudes, they can contend for a Wild Card spot. After that, anything can happen. However, for the team to have a chance, they need to avoid these worst-case scenarios in 2020.

Aside from staying healthy, Tatis cannot have the dreaded sophomore slump.

The Padres’ production took a noticeable dip when Tatis was ruled out for the remainder of the season in mid-August. The team went 15-35 after August 13 – Tatis’ last game in 2019 – including a dreadful 7-20 September. Between the stretch of April 29 and June 5, when he missed another significant portion, the Padres went 14-15, so to say the team felt his absence would be a massive understatement.

Tatis spent much of the offseason strengthening his back to avoid missing significant time again in 2020, and assuming he stays healthy, will he be a candidate for a sophomore slump? Fangraphs projects him to finish with .281/.346/.512 line with 20 home runs and 60 RBI. The batting average sounds about right given there will be some league adjustment that Tatis will need to overcome in year two.

A look within the division reveals a sophomore slump came from Cody Bellinger, who happened also to be named the league MVP last year. Bellinger posted a similar line in year two, but his extra-base hits took a nosedive from his rookie season, hitting 14 fewer home runs and driving in 21 fewer runs. That’s the league adjustment I was referring to, but I also think that Tatis could greatly benefit from batting second or third in the order.

I assume his projected statistics are from the leadoff spot, but there are a few other candidates on this roster who could thrive in this role while providing more opportunities for Tatis to drive them in. He also needs to clean up his defense at shortstop, but that should come as the game slows down for him.

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However, if Tatis posts a line lower than what’s projected for him, the Padres’ playoff chances are going to take a hit as well.

What if Franchy Cordero, Tommy Pham, and Wil Myers post underachieving seasons?

The Padres are expecting big things from Tommy Pham, now in a leadership role with this group of players. However, rumors have surfaced that Pham may not be ready to throw by Opening Day, with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune even stating that he wouldn’t be surprised if Pham were shut down. Acee’s comments were a bit misconstrued as he also alluded to the former Tampa Bay Ray playing a full season.

Pham suffered a setback earlier in camp, but due to an oblique strain. He DH’ed for the first time on Saturday and knocked in his first run of Spring Training in Sunday’s contest. However, if Pham has to miss significant time recovering from the elbow injury that hampered him near the end of the 2019 season, you can forget about postseason baseball.

Accompanied by Pham’s health, both Franchy Cordero and Wil Myers need to have bounceback years. Cordero, too, has struggled to remain healthy in his short Major League career, but everyone has raved about his exit velocity. Assuming Pham plays, I would expect him (Cordero) to be the fourth outfielder on this roster. His teammates know what he is capable of, and now he needs a bit of good fortune on his side to showcase that.

As for Myers, he’s posted back-to-back disappointing seasons. The 29-year-old signed a six-year extension before the 2017 season but struck out at a career-worst 34.3 percent last year. Fangraphs likes him to post a .240/.318/.440 line with 21 home runs and 65 RBI (98 wRC+) but still striking out at a 30.5 percent clip. He was recently linked to trade rumors with the Boston Red Sox and already has two home runs on the spring.

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If he stays, he needs to post similar numbers from 2017; otherwise, it’s likely best the two parties split. Wrapping this section up, production from the Padres’ outfield this year is going to be critical.

What is the Tommy John trio take a step backward in development and/or injury?

On paper, the Padres rotation looks to be one of the best in the NL West Division, but in reality, they are one or two reoccurring injuries away from being in big trouble. As noted, both Lamet and Richards returned from Tommy John surgery in the second half of last season. The former return on July 4, and he made 14 starts to close out the year while posting a 4.07 ERA. Lamet tossed 73.0 innings but struck out 105 batters.

He’s been tabbed as a dark horse for the Cy Young Award heading into this year, but I think most Padres’ fans would love for him to stay healthy all year. There is no doubt that he has the stuff to be a front of the rotation pitcher, and it’s just a matter of staying healthy. The same goes for Richards, who returned to make three starts to close out 2019. He hasn’t pitched a full season since 2015, but he still possesses elite stuff, again, when healthy.

Chris Paddack is the other guy to watch throughout the year. Now three years removed from TJ surgery, the 24-year-old posted incredible numbers last season – albeit on a restricted workload – but he’s cleared to a full season of work.

Should the injury bug bite one of the three, the Padres do have depth in their rotation, but there is a significant dropoff after Zach Davies. Joey Lucchesi led the team in innings pitched a year ago, and he appears to have a loose grip on the final spot in the rotation. However, if the Padres need Cal Quantrill, Adrian Morejon, or Michel Baez to play a more prominent role this year, they are likely going to see the consequences.

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I would imagine that MacKenzie Gore could potentially be the first called up in the event of an injury, but there’s just no way to translate his numbers in the minors to the big-leagues directly. He has top talent, no doubt, but I’ll have to see him perform at the big-league level. The Padres cannot afford to have long-term injuries within their starting rotation.

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The San Diego Padres have the roster to compete for a playoff spot this year, but these three scenarios could derail their plans of playing October baseball.

Aside from staying healthy, Tatis cannot have the dreaded sophomore slump.

What if Franchy Cordero, Tommy Pham, and Wil Myers post underachieving seasons?

What is the Tommy John trio take a step backward in development and/or injury?

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