San Diego Padres: Three candidates to leadoff this year

Tommy Pham

As a player who’s demonstrated the ability to be a high on-base guy, Tommy Pham is a solid option as the Padres’ leadoff man. And while he’s been limited to a 50-game sample as a leadoff man in his professional career, he’s also never been on a roster this deep.

Sure, the St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays are respectable organizations, but the former was in a bit of a transition period when Pham was there, and the Rays have always preferred pitching over the offense.

In his career, Pham has primarily batted from the second spot in the lineup, slashing .295/.382/.481 (107 OPS+) in 291 games. He’s hit from every other spot in the lineup, but none with as much success near the top of the order.

And of note, he has a 1.105 career OPS on first pitches, which could be invaluable to start the game when pitchers are usually trying to get a first-pitch fastball to start their evening.

With Pham’s work ethic and his ability to get on base, he would be the ideal leadoff hitter for this Padres’ lineup, followed by Tatis, Macado, and the rest of the boppers.

Trent Grisham

Trent Grisham made his highly-anticipated debut last year with the Milwaukee Brewers. He primarily served as the team’s leadoff hitter, slashing .254/.354/.426 with four doubles, one triple, five home runs, and 19 RBI (101 OPS+) over a 33-game sample. He also saw time batting second, third, sixth, seventh, eighth, and ninth in the order but no more than seven games in each spot.

The former 15th overall pick of the 2015 MLB Draft is looking to make a splash this season with the Padres, likely as the team’s center fielder, and could potentially slide into the batting order as the new leadoff man.

At Triple-A San Antonio, Grisham posted a .410/.496/.781 line with six doubles, three triples, nine home runs, and 21 RBI while drawing 18 walks in 26 games batting leadoff. A .781 slugging percentage is crazy high, and I did a double-take when reviewing the numbers to make sure I wasn’t looking at his OPS.

On Thursday, Grisham was Jayce Tingler’s leadoff man, so they appear to be trying him out there as a potential long-term fit. Heading into 2020 with just 51 big-league games under his belt, consistency will be a big factor in Grisham’s development, so I could see a scenario where he’s inserted ninth in the order to take some of the pressure off.

Once he feels comfortable enough to do so, then you could potentially consider him as the leadoff man.

Brian Dozier

Obviously, Brian Dozier would be a big “if” to leadoff this season, given he was signed to a minor-league deal with an invite to Spring Camp. The competition for the starting second base gig is heavy, but the 32-year-old has made it clear that he plans on playing a lot this season.

Throughout his career, Dozier has been heavily utilized batting first in the order, slashing .251/.329/.479 (109 OPS+) in 539 games. But he was limited to just one game last year, 69 games in 2018, and 151 games in 2017. In 2018, Dozier struggled mightily from the leadoff spot, slashing just .215/.286/.364 (73 OPS+) after slashing .271/.359/.498 (126 OPS+) the previous year.

2017 was his final full season in Minnesota before he was traded to the Dodgers at the trade deadline. Was his dropoff a result of him being another year older? Potentially, but Dozier also posted a career-low .240 BABIP, so it would seem bad luck was a big part of it as well.

I suspect that Dozier will have a chance to prove himself this spring in that spot of the batting order, but his days of hitting leadoff may be over.