While several of the MLB writers see a .500 team at best, Fangraphs’ algorithm predicts a prosperous year for the San Diego Padres, including a playoff berth.
It would be difficult not to improve on a 70-92 record. With the talent that this year’s San Diego Padres squad has, anything less than .500 would be considered a massive disappointment. As such, most of the MLB experts and writers have predicted this team to finish with approximately 82 wins, but Fangraphs’ algorithm takes a liking to the Friars.
The baseball statistics’ yearly projections are out and have the Padres finishing with an 87-75, second in the National League West division. It’s no secret that the Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorite to win this division and should easily win over 100 games unless they fall apart at the seams. We would only be so fortunate.
However, the goal is simply to secure a playoff spot, and anything can happen. See the 2019 Washington Nationals, for example. With 87 wins, Fangraphs also has the Padres grabbing the second Wild Card spot and playing for the right to move onto the NLDS against the Atlanta Braves.
Around the rest of the National League, they are not particularly high on the National League Central division, with the Chicago Cubs winning the division with just 85 wins. The National League East division figures to be highly competitive, and Fangraphs reflects that as well, with the New York Mets finishing in third place with the same record as the Padres.
Diving deeper into the numbers and how the team achieves 87 wins, they have the following notable individual statistics:
- Manny Machado: 31 doubles, two triples, 33 home runs, 100 RBI
- Tommy Pham: 25 doubles, three triples, 21 home runs, 63 RBI
- Fernando Tatis Jr.: 17 doubles, six triples, 20 home runs, 60 RBI
- Trent Grisham: 21 doubles, seven triples, 20 home runs, 66 RBI
- Ty France: 26 doubles, two triples, 19 home runs, 72 RBI
- Eric Hosmer: 27 doubles, two triples, 22 home runs, 90 RBI
And they see the Padres rotation finishing looking something like:
- Chris Paddack: 10-9, 3.68 ERA, 174K, 37 BB
- Dinelson Lamet: 7-7, 3.91 ERA, 138K, 53 BB
- Garrett Richards: 3-3, 3.99 ERA, 57K, 20 BB
- Zach Davies: 9-9, 4.10 ERA, 105K, 48 BB
- Joey Lucchesi: 9-9, 3.98 ERA, 146K, 51 BB
- MacKenzie Gore: 6-5, 3.62 ERA, 105K, 39 BB
- Cal Quantrill: 8-11, 4.88 ERA, 111K, 46 BB
It’s interesting to see Richards’ 56.3 innings pitched because Fangraphs either doesn’t believe he will stay healthy or will be uprooted by Gore at some point in the year. That could very likely be the case, but the rest of the rotation looks sound on paper. Quantrill, the one outlier, is projected to hover near a five ERA.
I think perhaps the two biggest surprises here are the production the team is getting from both Grisham and France. The projections see Wil Myers hitting just .240, Austin Hedges .218, and Franchy Cordero .221, which isn’t exactly settling.
Obviously, these are just estimates but it’s intriguing to read players’ statistics that could ultimately form the makeup of a playoff team, especially with most of the fans salivating for the regular season to begin.