San Diego Padres: Are we underestimating the value of Zach Davies

Zach Davies has become the unforgotten piece of the San Diego Padres trade with the Milwaukee Brewers earlier this offseason. Should we be expecting more?

The San Diego Padres went into this offseason hoping to get a top of the rotation starting pitcher and what we got was Zach Davies.

I think for that reason alone a lot of people are underestimating the value that Davies can bring in 2020.

No, he’s not going to be the top of the rotation pitcher we were hoping to acquire, but he’s more than the back of the rotation pitcher that many are labeling him as.

I’ve been pretty upfront about the trade with the Brewers this offseason and how I think it was a bad and unnecessary trade. If felt like A.J. Preller making a move just to make a move.

And when we think about that trade we usually think about trading a couple of high-upside players in Luis Urias and Trent Grisham.

We forget about the pitchers involved in that deal in Davies and Eric Lauer.

Davies is a former 26th round pick by the Baltimore Orioles in the 2011 MLB Draft out of Mesquite High School in Gilbert, Ariz.

In 2015 the Orioles traded him to the Brewers for Gerardo Parra. He made his debut with the Brewers that season and posted a 3.71 ERA in 34 innings pitched with 24 strikeouts.

Davies now enters his age 27 season in 2020 and is under team control through the 2021 season before becoming a free agent.

Let’s take a deeper look at the numbers through his first four full seasons in the big leagues and what we can expect from him in a Padres uniform.

The Numbers

In his first full season in the big leagues, Davies posted a 3.97 ERA in 163.1 innings with 135 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.25. FanGraphs rated that as a 2.5 WAR season.

The 2017 season was his best to date with 17 wins and a 3.90 ERA in 191.1 innings with 124 strikeouts, a WHIP of 1.35, and 2.7 WAR.

In 2018 Davies only made 13 starts as he was dealing with shoulder and back discomfort. And when he did pitch he wasn’t very good with a 4.77 ERA in 66 innings with 49 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.33.

This past season he bounce backed with a 3.55 ERA in 159.2 innings with 102 strikeouts, a WHIP of 1.29, and 1.6 WAR.

However, he did have a FIP of 4.56 (the highest of his career) and the worst K/9 of his career at 5.75.

But one reason to be really optimistic about Davies’ numbers improving with the Padres are his home/road splits.

Over his career he has a 4.65 ERA at home in hitter friendly Miller Park, and a 3.04 ERA on the road.

He gave up a home run once every 7 innings pitched at home compared to every 12 innings pitched on the road.

Looking at his arsenal, his fastball did drop 1 MPH in 2018 from 89.9 in 2018 to 88.5 in 2019. He also dramatically increased his changeup usage from 12.2 percent in 2018 to 31.3 percent in 2019, while decreasing the use of his curveball.