What to expect in 2020
Davies has never been a huge strikeout pitcher, but I would hope his K/9 jumps back up to around 6.5 in 2020. And I would certainly expect his HR/9 to go back down under 1 pitching more in Petco and not in Miller Park.
His groundball percentage took a huge dip in 2019 as well going from 47.5 percent in 2018 to just 40.1 percent in 2019. I would expect that to go back up around 45 percent, and he should get great defense from the left side of the Padres infield.
I really think those three things — increased strikeouts, less home runs, and more groundballs — are realistic things that will get better for Davies in San Diego.
And if those things happen, we’re easily looking at a middle of the rotation starter.
Steamer is not very kind to Davies in 2020 as they project him to have a 5.07 ERA in 150 innings with 6.2 K/9 and 1.46 HR/9.
That really makes no sense to me. Why would his home run numbers go up when his home ballpark is going from Miller to Petco?
ZiPS has Davies going 9-9 with a 4.10 ERA in 151.3 innings with 105 strikeouts, a K/9 of 6.2, a HR/9 of 1.1, and 1.8 WAR.
I think those projections are much more realistic of what to expect from Davies in 2020.
But again, I think it could be even better.
It would not surprise me at all to see him post an ERA around 3.50 in 175 innings with more than 2 WAR.
What are your thoughts on Davies in 2020? Let us know in the comments below what you expect from him this season with the Padres.