San Diego Padres: Are we underestimating the value of Zach Davies

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - SEPTEMBER 16: Zach Davies #27 of the Milwaukee Brewers pitches in the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Miller Park on September 16, 2019 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - SEPTEMBER 16: Zach Davies #27 of the Milwaukee Brewers pitches in the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Miller Park on September 16, 2019 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /
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Zach Davies #27 of the Milwaukee Brewers. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images)
Zach Davies #27 of the Milwaukee Brewers. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images) /

What to expect in 2020

Davies has never been a huge strikeout pitcher, but I would hope his K/9 jumps back up to around 6.5 in 2020. And I would certainly expect his HR/9 to go back down under 1 pitching more in Petco and not in Miller Park.

His groundball percentage took a huge dip in 2019 as well going from 47.5 percent in 2018 to just 40.1 percent in 2019. I would expect that to go back up around 45 percent, and he should get great defense from the left side of the Padres infield.

I really think those three things — increased strikeouts, less home runs, and more groundballs — are realistic things that will get better for Davies in San Diego.

And if those things happen, we’re easily looking at a middle of the rotation starter.

Steamer is not very kind to Davies in 2020 as they project him to have a 5.07 ERA in 150 innings with 6.2 K/9 and 1.46 HR/9.

That really makes no sense to me. Why would his home run numbers go up when his home ballpark is going from Miller to Petco?

ZiPS has Davies going 9-9 with a 4.10 ERA in 151.3 innings with 105 strikeouts, a K/9 of 6.2, a HR/9 of 1.1, and 1.8 WAR.

I think those projections are much more realistic of what to expect from Davies in 2020.

But again, I think it could be even better.

It would not surprise me at all to see him post an ERA around 3.50 in 175 innings with more than 2 WAR.

Next. Now or never for Hedges. dark

What are your thoughts on Davies in 2020? Let us know in the comments below what you expect from him this season with the Padres.

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