San Diego Padres: Are we underestimating the value of Zach Davies

The Numbers

In his first full season in the big leagues, Davies posted a 3.97 ERA in 163.1 innings with 135 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.25. FanGraphs rated that as a 2.5 WAR season.

The 2017 season was his best to date with 17 wins and a 3.90 ERA in 191.1 innings with 124 strikeouts, a WHIP of 1.35, and 2.7 WAR.

In 2018 Davies only made 13 starts as he was dealing with shoulder and back discomfort. And when he did pitch he wasn’t very good with a 4.77 ERA in 66 innings with 49 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.33.

This past season he bounce backed with a 3.55 ERA in 159.2 innings with 102 strikeouts, a WHIP of 1.29, and 1.6 WAR.

However, he did have a FIP of 4.56 (the highest of his career) and the worst K/9 of his career at 5.75.

But one reason to be really optimistic about Davies’ numbers improving with the Padres are his home/road splits.

Over his career he has a 4.65 ERA at home in hitter friendly Miller Park, and a 3.04 ERA on the road.

He gave up a home run once every 7 innings pitched at home compared to every 12 innings pitched on the road.

Looking at his arsenal, his fastball did drop 1 MPH in 2018 from 89.9 in 2018 to 88.5 in 2019. He also dramatically increased his changeup usage from 12.2 percent in 2018 to 31.3 percent in 2019, while decreasing the use of his curveball.