San Diego Padres News: Three biggest regression candidates for 2020

As we inch closer to Spring Training and the regular season, we looked at three San Diego Padres who could experience a regression in 2020.

The San Diego Padres, as a group, were in the hunt at the All-Star break last year with a 45-45 record but fell off a cliff in the second half. That was in large part due to a couple of significant injuries and lackluster second halves from several players.

Regression is an unfortunate part of the game, and often it is a result of the league figuring how to get a player out or hit particular balls off pitchers. Often it’s just dumb luck. Last year, Manny Machado was a victim who experienced a bit of a letdown year.

Fresh off signing a ten-year, $300 million deal in free agency, Machado didn’t live up to his expectations last season, posting a .256/.334/.462 line with 32 home runs and 85 RBI (109 OPS+).

It’s funny because most would be thrilled with those numbers, but that was considered a down year for Machado. It didn’t help that he led the National League in ground-into-double-plays (24), which attributed to him posting the worst OPS since 2014.

Machado would seem like a great choice for a bounceback candidate in year two as a Padre with an OPS well over .800. He, along with Fernando Tatis Jr. figure to be mainstays on the left side of the infield for the foreseeable future, so it’s important to get production from those guys.

And as we turn our attention to the rest of the roster, it begs the question of who might be in store for regression this season?

Kirby Yates

As Kirby Yates enters his age 33 season, he is coming off his most dominant one in 2019. The 5-foot-10 righty collected the most saves in the National League (41) while posting a 1.19 ERA with a 15.0 K/9. He also earned his first All-Star selection and finishing ninth in the Cy Young voting.

Yates has been outstanding in a Padres uniform since being claimed off waivers in April 2017, recording a combined 2.31 ERA in nearly three seasons. He took over as the regular closer after the team traded Brad Hand – who was also claimed off waivers – and has revitalized his career in that role.

He’s likely due for a regression simply because his numbers were so good that it’s difficult to imagine repeating them. Still, that doesn’t mean he’s going to turn in a clunker of a year, but Fangraphs has him pegged for a 3.22 ERA season with 32 saves in 65 appearances. I believe that’s a fair prediction for Yates, who will also become a free agent at seasons’ end.

He signed a one-year, $7.1 million deal to return to San Diego in 2020, but his long-term future appears to be up in the air. Assuming that he adheres to those projected numbers, I could see a scenario where Yates tests the free-agent market, and virtually everyone in the Padres’ bullpen would shift up a slot next year with Emilio Pagan becoming the closer.

Eric Hosmer

I feel like Eric Hosmer often gets lost in the flashiness of the Manny Machado-Fernando Tatis Jr. combination along with the young, talented starting rotation. The fact of the matter is that Hosmer had a very productive 2019, slashing .265/.310/.425 with 22 home runs and 99 RBI in 160 games.

His RBI total was good enough for 12th best in the National League and fourth-best among NL first basemen. The former Kansas City Royal signed an eight-year, $144 million before the 2018 season, accelerating the Padres’ rebuild.

Hosmer’s OPS has taken a dip from previous years, in large part, because he’s not taking as many walks. And a closer review of his statistics would suggest that he’s due for a regression in 2020. For whatever reason, even years have not been as kind to him.

Starting from 2014, here are Hosmer’s stats by year:

• 2014: .270/.318/.398 with nine home runs and 58 RBI (99 OPS+)
• 2015: .297/.363/.459 with 18 home runs and 93 RBI (122 OPS+)
• 2016: .266/.328/.433 with 25 home runs and 104 RBI (102 OPS+)
• 2017: .318/.385/.498 with 25 home runs and 94 RBI (133 OPS+)
• 2018: .253/.322/.398 with 18 home runs and 69 RBI (100 OPS+)
• 2019: .265/.310/.425 with 22 home run and 99 RBI (93 OPS+)

Obviously, last year somewhat broke the cycle in terms of the roller coaster OPS+, but it could also be a sign of Hosmer now being on the wrong side of 30.