San Diego Padres 2020 Starting Rotation Projections Before Spring Training

Richards and Lamet

Garrett Richards

Signing before last season to a 2 year $15.5 million contract, Richards was 14 months post Tommy John surgery when he stepped onto the mound for the Padres last September.

Pitching 8.2 innings over three games started, Richards showed he still owned the stuff that made him the ace of the Los Angeles Angels staff before injury forced him off the mound.

The 31-year-old veteran pitched to a 3.15 ERA over five seasons with the Angels, including injury shortened years that saw him treat his UCL tear with stem cells instead of surgery.

Finally relenting to the knife in 2018, Richards was cut loose from the Angels and signed by the Padres in hopes of a bounce back in 2020.

Possessing a 95-96 MPH fastball with a wicked slider and effective curveball, Richards has every quality needed to serve as the ace of the staff if he can attain his previous status.

Not surprisingly he was hit pretty hard in those 8.2 innings but the Padres staff saw everything they needed to see to dream on what Richards could mean to the team in 2020.

Dinelson Lamet

Lamet is my pick for this year’s breakout star. The 27-year-old came back last season after 15 months recovering from Tommy John surgery. He pitched 73 innings with a 4.07 ERA and was rather unlucky in some of his outings.

He also dominated in others with his mid-to-high 90’s fastball, two devastating sliders, a biting curve, improved change-up and a sinker. A true six-pitch pitcher, Lamet’s only issue is whether he can command his pitches through the game.

According to the glowing article by Sheryl Ring in beyondtheboxscore.com, Lamet has everything an ace needs to dominate. Her comparisons to Aaron Nola and Max Scherzer not withstanding, Lamet has the makings of a dominant front of the rotation starter.

Can he attain that projection in 2020? We’re going to find out.

Innings eater

Zach Davies

Acquired by the Padres, along with outfielder Trent Grisham, from Milwaukee in exchange for Eric Lauer and Luis Urias. Davies is a finesse pitcher who has had impressive success with the Brewers over his four seasons with the team.

Starting 2020 at 27 years of age, Davies features a four-pitch mix with a 90 MPH sinker, change-up, curveball, and cutter. He mixes his pitches well and has a 3.91 ERA over his four seasons.

His 2018 season was his shortest with only 66 innings pitched as a result of two stints on the injured list with rotator cuff inflammation.

His durability and consistency will be a welcome anchor for the middle of the rotation.

The Padres have two pitchers in the rotation coming off TJ surgery and will need the innings eater that Davies has become to help the bullpen rest. If placed after or between Richards and Lamet he should go a long way toward resting some tired arms.

Joey Lucchesi

With no disrespect to Cal Quantrill, Lucchesi has the inside track to the last rotation spot. He has a 4.14 ERA over his first two seasons with the Padres and pitched 163.2 innings in 2019.

Lucchesi features a two-seam fastball in the low 90’s with his trademark churve (curve/change-up combo) being the most effective. His issue during his first two seasons has been his inability to pitch deep into games as the hitters adjust well to his fastball and churve pattern.

To be effective and pitch deeper into games, Lucchesi has added a third pitch that he will debut during the spring. If able to incorporate an effective third offering, Lucchesi will have a leg up on Quantrill for the final spot, especially as he is the only left hander competing for the rotation.

There has not been a whisper of what Quantrill has been working on this offseason. If he comes into Arizona with an improved performance on the mound it can only make the last rotation spot a more interesting competition.

Final thoughts

Much has been said about the possibility of top prospect Mackenzie Gore blowing everyone away this spring, as Chris Paddack did last year. My opinion is that even if Gore is spectacular he will not make the rotation unless there is an injury or illness that requires it.

With his 21.2 innings pitched in Double-A Amarillo, Gore needs more seasoning in the minor leagues before facing big league hitters.

His cumulative 183 minor league innings over four levels and three seasons have shown what he is capable of against young hitters, but that 2.56 ERA will be more impressive if he can hold it over another three months or so of Double-A competition.

Allowing him to pitch in the majors at age 21 probably won’t ruin him if it doesn’t go well, but I would prefer to give him a good start at Amarillo and then bring him up with momentum and confidence behind him.

If these starters can approach their ceilings during this season it is no surprise that the Friars did not jump to sign the high priced free agents available.

Paddack, Richards, and Lamet all have ace potential and I expect two, if not all three, will not disappoint. There is potential for adding Gore after two-to-three months if the rotation needs to be shored up.

With a combination of Davies, Lucchesi, and/or Quantrill holding down the back end, the Padres shouldn’t have to use the minor league depth as often as last season.