Why Padres 2020 season could hinge on the arm of Garrett Richards

We take a look at starting pitcher Garrett Richards and the impact he could have on the 2020 season for the San Diego Padres.

There has not been a lot of talk about San Diego Padres starting pitcher Garrett Richards this offseason, but what he could potentially do for this team in 2020 could determine whether or not they make the postseason this year.

Now maybe I’m overstating his importance just a bit, but when the Padres signed him to a two-year deal worth $15.5 million knowing they would only get one full year out of him, they were hoping for a top of the rotation pitcher.

And as the depth chart currently stands, that’s what they are expecting from Richards in 2020.

Right now we know we have a top of the rotation arm in Chris Paddack. But everyone else behind him is a question mark.

Dinelson Lamet is the only only starting pitcher in the rotation who could become a top of the rotation starter in 2020.

Now, we certainly believe that MacKenzie Gore could join Paddack atop the rotation in 2020 at some point, but that’s not a given in his potential rookie season. Luis Patino most likely won’t make his big league debut until September or in 2021.

Joey Lucchesi and Zach Davies seem like solid middle-to-back of the rotation starters and I don’t see either of them suddenly becoming a number two-type pitcher.

But Richards has that capability. It seems like a long shot at this point considering his injury history, but when healthy this guy has been ace-like.

What to expect in 2020

I think expecting him to return to his 2015 form when he was a Cy Young contender is unreasonable.

But I do expect him to be a top of the rotation pitcher if he can stay healthy and eat some innings.

FanGraphs ZiPS projections have Richards posting a 3.99 ERA in just 56.3 innings with 57 strikeouts. Obviously those projections are based on his short stints in the past few seasons.

We’re thinking optimistically here in January and wondering what can happen if he stays healthy for a full season, which I know, hasn’t happened in almost five years.

Here is what I think Richards is capable of in 2020 with the Padres: 175 innings, 3.45 ERA, 160 strikeouts, and 2.5 WAR.

That would make him a fringe top of the rotation starter. But even that would be good enough to make the Padres a legitimate threat in the NL West and for a Wild Card spot.

If you pair that production with Paddack, who will likely have a similar line, that gives you two solid guys atop the rotation.

And then you just hope either Lamet takes a step forward or Gore comes up and is an instant success.

But there is a chance Richards is even better than I’m predicting. It wouldn’t be too shocking to see him finish with an ERA between 3 and 3.30.

However, it would be shocking to see him stay healthy enough to throw 170-plus innings.

This is what San Diego paid him for, though, to lead a young rotation in a year they hope to turn everything around for the future. Richards staying healthy and pitching like he’s capable will go a long way towards making that happen.