Why Padres 2020 season could hinge on the arm of Garrett Richards

The glory days

Before the 2012 season Richards was considered a Top 100 prospect by most outlets after posting a 3.15 ERA in 2011 at Double-A with 103 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.14 in 143 innings.

He made his debut in that 2011 season with the Angels throwing just 14 innings.

Richards didn’t become a full-time big leaguer until 2013 when he threw 145 innings for the Angels with a 4.16 ERA.

But in 2014 he really put himself on the map as a top of the rotation pitcher with a 2.61 ERA in 168.2 innings with with a K/9 of 8.75.

That was his best season of his career with 4.3 WAR, according to FanGraphs.

In 2015 he threw over 200 innings for the first time with a 3.65 ERA in 207.1 innings for a WAR of 2.8.

Since then he’s thrown just 147.1 innings combined in the big leagues because of injuries. But when he has been on the mound during that time he’s been very good with a 3.36 ERA, which is even better if you throw out the 8.2 innings he pitched for the Padres at the end of 2019.

His fastball didn’t have any decline after coming back from Tommy John as he averaged 95.1 MPH in 2019 and his slider was actually the fastest it has ever been at around 89.2 MPH. And his curveball had good life as well.

It was a short sample size with the Padres in 2019, but everything looked just the same for Richards.

Location was the only issue I saw, and that’s to be expected coming back from TJ.

What to expect in 2020

I think expecting him to return to his 2015 form when he was a Cy Young contender is unreasonable.

But I do expect him to be a top of the rotation pitcher if he can stay healthy and eat some innings.

FanGraphs ZiPS projections have Richards posting a 3.99 ERA in just 56.3 innings with 57 strikeouts. Obviously those projections are based on his short stints in the past few seasons.

We’re thinking optimistically here in January and wondering what can happen if he stays healthy for a full season, which I know, hasn’t happened in almost five years.

Here is what I think Richards is capable of in 2020 with the Padres: 175 innings, 3.45 ERA, 160 strikeouts, and 2.5 WAR.

That would make him a fringe top of the rotation starter. But even that would be good enough to make the Padres a legitimate threat in the NL West and for a Wild Card spot.

If you pair that production with Paddack, who will likely have a similar line, that gives you two solid guys atop the rotation.

And then you just hope either Lamet takes a step forward or Gore comes up and is an instant success.

But there is a chance Richards is even better than I’m predicting. It wouldn’t be too shocking to see him finish with an ERA between 3 and 3.30.

However, it would be shocking to see him stay healthy enough to throw 170-plus innings.

This is what San Diego paid him for, though, to lead a young rotation in a year they hope to turn everything around for the future. Richards staying healthy and pitching like he’s capable will go a long way towards making that happen.