Padres: After year of adjustment Manny Machado is set to break out

The 2019 season was certainly a big adjustment for Manny  Machado with the San Diego Padres, but he could be ready to break out in 2020.

When the San Diego Padres signed Manny Machado to a 10 year, $300 million contract last offseason it was supposed to signal the beginning of a new era.

They had their superstar to anchor the lineup and they had their rising superstar to pair with him in Fernando Tatis Jr.

And for the first half of 2019 we saw glimpses of that as San Diego hovered around .500 and remained in the Wild Card race.

But with Tatis missing most of the second-half of 2019 and Machado struggling down the stretch, the Padres season fell apart and now we enter 2020 still waiting to see them turn things around.

And it all really starts with these two superstars, but more specifically I want to focus on Machado.

Over six-and-a-half years playing in a hitter’s friendly ballpark in Baltimore, Machado hit .283/.335 with 162 home runs and an OPS of .822 in 860 games.

From 2015-2018 he averaged 35.5 home runs a year and hit a home run every 17.6 at-bats. Since coming over to the National League that has dropped a little to every 19 at-bats, but that’s nothing too alarming and is expected playing in much more pitcher-friendly parks.

The biggest issue since coming over to the National League has been his average as he’s hit .261 in 854 at-bats with the Dodgers and Padres.

Let’s take a look at the numbers, why they were down in 2019, and whether or not Machado can turn things around in San Diego.

A look at the averages

Some people in today’s game don’t put a lot of stock in batting average, but don’t count me in that group. If you can hit, your average is going to be good, that’s never changed.

In 2019 Machado put up the lowest batting average of his career hitting .256 with the Padres. It was only the second time since his rookie season in which he had a batting average under .275.

He’s never been a .300 hitter, but I think most expect him to hit between .275-.290 every year.

His OBP of .334 in 2019 is right on mark with his career norms and that’s about where I expect him to be with San Diego — somewhere between .330-.350.

It was only the second time since 2014 that he finished the year with an OPS under .800; although he was really close at .796.

For what San Diego is paying him, I think it’s reasonable to expect him to at least have an .800 OPS every year (at least through his prime years) and probably fall somewhere in the .850-.900 range.

His 108 wRC+ in 2019 was much lower than the 127 wRC+ that he averaged from 2015-2018, so it’s safe to expect that to be much higher going forward.

What should we expect

More from Friars on Base

• Padres News: Fernando Tatis Jr. trade rumors, Seth Lugo chase, Manny Machado
• Padres barely missed out on high-end veteran starting pitcher
• This veteran DH target seems ideal for contending Padres roster
• Padres got steal with Xander Bogaerts after Carlos Correa’s mega-deal
• Failed Padres top prospect makes stunning return with minor league deal

I think it’s pretty safe to expect and assume we see Manny Machado get back to what we saw from him during his time with Baltimore, which is an All-Star caliber player.

Part of that is just expecting that the Padres are going to be a better team in 2020 and should have a deeper lineup.

With a healthy Tatis Jr. at the top of the lineup and Tommy Pham likely hitting in front of him as well, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to drive in over 90 runs again.

It would be great if they can get one more bat to protect Machado in the lineup. Or if Eric Hosmer can bounce-back.

But either way, this lineup should be much better in 2020 and that alone should help Machado boost his numbers.

In the first half last year he had a .266/.339/.489/.828 slash line with 20 home runs in 331 at-bats (a home run every 16.6 at-bats).

While the average and slugging percentage was still a little low, that’s the type of production we should expect from him.

And what’s really surprising is that his walk percentage, strikeout percentage, and hard-hit rate were actually higher in the second half last season. But his BABIP was much lower at .260 compared to .287 in the first half.

Maybe part of that has to do with the way teams shifted on Machado, and maybe some of it has to do with Machado adjusting to National League pitchers.

Whatever the case may be, the numbers show us there is no reason to be concerned about our third baseman going forward.

I fully expect to see him playing at an All-Star level in 2020 and wouldn’t be surprised to see him put up a line similar to this: .280/.340/.520/.850, 35 home runs, 90 RBI, and a 125 wRC+.

And we haven’t even touched on his defense, which is still elite and will help him be a 5-6 WAR player again.

What are your expectations for Machado in 2020? Let us know in the comments below.