Padres: After year of adjustment Manny Machado is set to break out

The 2019 season was certainly a big adjustment for Manny  Machado with the San Diego Padres, but he could be ready to break out in 2020.

When the San Diego Padres signed Manny Machado to a 10 year, $300 million contract last offseason it was supposed to signal the beginning of a new era.

They had their superstar to anchor the lineup and they had their rising superstar to pair with him in Fernando Tatis Jr.

And for the first half of 2019 we saw glimpses of that as San Diego hovered around .500 and remained in the Wild Card race.

But with Tatis missing most of the second-half of 2019 and Machado struggling down the stretch, the Padres season fell apart and now we enter 2020 still waiting to see them turn things around.

And it all really starts with these two superstars, but more specifically I want to focus on Machado.

Over six-and-a-half years playing in a hitter’s friendly ballpark in Baltimore, Machado hit .283/.335 with 162 home runs and an OPS of .822 in 860 games.

From 2015-2018 he averaged 35.5 home runs a year and hit a home run every 17.6 at-bats. Since coming over to the National League that has dropped a little to every 19 at-bats, but that’s nothing too alarming and is expected playing in much more pitcher-friendly parks.

The biggest issue since coming over to the National League has been his average as he’s hit .261 in 854 at-bats with the Dodgers and Padres.

Let’s take a look at the numbers, why they were down in 2019, and whether or not Machado can turn things around in San Diego.

Reason for hope

So why were those numbers so down for Machado in 2019? Is playing 81 games in Petco really to blame?

The reason for hope is pretty obvious and it’s because he did run into a little bad luck in 2019. His BABIP was .274, which is well below his career average of .298.

Just getting an average year of BABIP would increase his average and OPS numbers to his norms.

One thing that was a bit alarming is that his strikeout percentage jumped to 19.4 percent in 2019, which is the highest total of his career. He needs to get that back down to around 15 percent.

From 2015 to 2018 with Baltimore he averaged a hard-hit percentage of 36 percent with a high of 39.5 percent in 2017 and a low of 33.1 percent in 2015.

With San Diego in 2019 his hard hit percentage was actually well above normal at 43.5 percent.

His pull percentage and opposite field percentage in 2019 was right on par with his career norms, so nothing changed there. The same is true for his groundball, fly ball, and home run/fly ball percentages.

Just looking at the numbers, they suggest Machado just suffered with a little bad luck in 2019 and that he’s not far off from putting up his career norms.

What should we expect

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I think it’s pretty safe to expect and assume we see Manny Machado get back to what we saw from him during his time with Baltimore, which is an All-Star caliber player.

Part of that is just expecting that the Padres are going to be a better team in 2020 and should have a deeper lineup.

With a healthy Tatis Jr. at the top of the lineup and Tommy Pham likely hitting in front of him as well, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to drive in over 90 runs again.

It would be great if they can get one more bat to protect Machado in the lineup. Or if Eric Hosmer can bounce-back.

But either way, this lineup should be much better in 2020 and that alone should help Machado boost his numbers.

In the first half last year he had a .266/.339/.489/.828 slash line with 20 home runs in 331 at-bats (a home run every 16.6 at-bats).

While the average and slugging percentage was still a little low, that’s the type of production we should expect from him.

And what’s really surprising is that his walk percentage, strikeout percentage, and hard-hit rate were actually higher in the second half last season. But his BABIP was much lower at .260 compared to .287 in the first half.

Maybe part of that has to do with the way teams shifted on Machado, and maybe some of it has to do with Machado adjusting to National League pitchers.

Whatever the case may be, the numbers show us there is no reason to be concerned about our third baseman going forward.

I fully expect to see him playing at an All-Star level in 2020 and wouldn’t be surprised to see him put up a line similar to this: .280/.340/.520/.850, 35 home runs, 90 RBI, and a 125 wRC+.

And we haven’t even touched on his defense, which is still elite and will help him be a 5-6 WAR player again.

What are your expectations for Machado in 2020? Let us know in the comments below.