Padres: Why it's go big or go home this offseason in free agency & trades

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PHILADELPHIA, PA – AUGUST 16: Chris Paddack #59 of the San Diego Padres throws a pitch in the first inning during a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on August 16, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Hunter Martin/Getty Images) /

The San Diego Padres are expected to be active in the free agent and trade markets this offseason, but their list of targets should be small.

While there is no question the San Diego Padres need to address the starting rotation and outfield this offseason, how they go about it will be key.

The Padres have a lot of talented young players who need time to develop at the Major League level. And they can’t do that if the front office acquires players who are going to block them.

As much as the Padres and Padres’ fans want to win and compete in 2020, they shouldn’t do it at the cost of delaying the development of young players.

This is especially true at second base and in the starting rotation.

Already fans are ready to give up on Luis Urias at second base after just 300 Major League appearances.

This is a guy who was still a top 30 prospect going into the 2019 season.

While I’m not saying I think he’s going to become the superstar many thought he would be, I still want to see him be given a real shot.

Cheri Bell put out an article this week detailing all of the internal options the Padres have for the starting rotation.

Chris Paddack, Joey Lucchesi, and Dinelson Lamet have show flashes of brilliance, but they all need to continue and develop.

The same can be said for Eric Lauer and Cal Quantrill who will be battling for a back of the rotation spot.

And top prospects MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino could make their debuts in 2020. I wouldn’t want either of them blocked by a veteran in the back of the rotation.

As far as the outfield goes, I think we’ve seen enough from Wil Myers, Manuel Margot, and Hunter Renfroe to know what they’re capable of.

SAN DIEGO, CA – SEPTEMBER 20: Eric Lauer #46 of the San Diego Padres pitches during the the second inning of a baseball game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park September 20, 2019 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

Go Big or Go Home

I say all of that to say this — if the Padres are going to make a move of any sort this offseason, it has to be a big one.

One of the biggest mistakes I made during our Faux Winter Meetings was making a deal for the sake of making a deal. I wanted to build a contender for 2020 and made a bunch of short-sighted moves.

Related Story. Faux Winter Meetings Review. light

In the end, what I realized is that I could have done just as good with the players already on the roster.

Instead of bringing in a veteran, back of the rotation starter like Michael Pineda, I would have been better served to just let Lauer or Quantrill continue to develop in that spot.

That’s why I think if the Padres are going to make any moves this offseason it needs to be for someone who will be a major upgrade and a player that will be around for their winning window.

There are already several average players on the Padres roster who have the potential to be great.

I’d rather give those guys a shot than bring in a player who has proven to just be good or average throughout their career.

And I also don’t think it’s smart to bring in stopgap players on one-year deals.

Unless the front office really thinks the Padres have a shot at winning a World Series in 2020, there isn’t much reason to waste money and prospects on a rental player.

WASHINGTON, DC – OCTOBER 14: Stephen Strasburg #37 of the Washington Nationals after retiring his side in the seventh inning of the game three of the National League Championship Series against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on October 14, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

What does that look like

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If the Padres are going to take my advice and only shop on the top shelf this offseason, what does that look like?

Again, I think the priority this offseason is to find a frontline starting pitcher and rework the outfield.

As far as starting pitchers go, here is a list of the only guys I would consider:

The first two are obvious but unlikely. Maybe the Padres get lucky with a hometown discount for Strasburg, but I kind of doubt it as all indications are that he’s happy in Washington.

But I would be willing to overpay for either of those two.

Kluber and Sale are in a separate tier as both are an injury risk right now (but aren’t all pitchers?) and are very expensive. But if healthy they both can lead a pitching staff.

And then Wheeler, MadBum, and Gray are in that next tier as I think they all can be a solid top of the rotation pitcher.

But beyond those seven (unless I’m missing someone available in a trade that I’m not aware of) I don’t think it makes much sense to acquire a starting pitcher.

Maybe you could grab a veteran like Pineda or Julio Teheran for the back of the rotation to eat innings, but again, I’d rather give those innings to a young guy and let them develop.

In the outfield, it’s a little more open because I’d be OK moving on from just about all of the current internal options.

But here is a list of outfielders I would go after:

Again, unless I’m missing someone who is available in a trade that I’m not aware of, those are the only outfielders I would target.

And I’m honestly not that high on the free agents, Castellanos and Ozuna, as they aren’t great defenders.

Haniger, Mancini, and Marte would be my main targets in a trade.

Peralta goes against what I said earlier about shortsighted moves, but I think he could be had pretty cheap and is a perfect fit for what the Padres need (a left-handed slugger).

The window for the Padres realistically won’t begin until 2021 when hopefully we will have a rotation of Gore, Paddack, and Patino dominating at the top.

2020 rotation options. dark. Next

There really isn’t a reason to make any moves this offseason just for 2020. The best path forward is to allow the young players to continue to develop so we know who is going to be part of the winning culture in 2021 and beyond.

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Padres: Why it’s go big or go home this offseason in free agency and trades

The San Diego Padres are expected to be active in the free agent and trade markets this offseason, but their list of targets should be small.

Go Big or Go Home

What does that look like

More from Friars on Base

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