Why the three-way trade helps the San Diego Padres, and why it hurts

Position of strength for position of need

A.J. Preller shipped away a player in a position of strength for the Friars — corner outfield. It’s been discussed all season long how San Diego has a glut of outfielders, and how tough it’ll be to cement just one or two players in the lineup moving forward.

With that said, center field has been a gaping hole for a while now. While Manuel Margot has been hot recently, the Friars lack a man up the middle in their top 10 prospects list — the highest ranked prospects are Tirso Ornelas, who’s 15th in the Padres system, and Edward Olivares, who ranks 20th.

Ultimately, the Padres swapped a position of strength for a position of need. Yes, Reyes has raw power and a personality that can’t be replicated, but none of those translated to good defense — in 2018 and 2019 combined, he had a -4.4 UZR, -11 Defensive Runs Saved, and a -10.7 DEF. If we had to choose between Reyes and Hunter Renfroe, Reyes was the one who needed to go.

Renfroe will likely start in right field moving forward, which should be his best position for the team. The Padres also have several prospects and players who will try to snag that left field spot, which probably belongs to Wil Myers for the time being.

In exchange for a player in crowded position, San Diego got a top 30 prospect in Taylor Trammell, who was the Reds number one prospect. He’s a speedy left-handed outfielder, who could fill in nicely at center field, which fits the bill almost perfectly for a position that the Padres desperately needed.

Who knows what this will mean for Margot, though. Perhaps he’ll be packaged in a last-minute deal to the New York Mets for Noah Syndergaard, as the Mets have previously expressed interest in Margot.

Or, the Padres might decide to flip Trammell in a different trade — a top 30 prospect will be valuable to someone, somewhere who doesn’t need an MLB-ready starter right away.

No room for Allen on the starting rotation

Meanwhile, Logan Allen had certainly flashed potential in the Padres system, but it was clear that there wasn’t any room for him on this starting rotation moving forward.

In reality, Allen had been pitching with the Padres strictly due to the lack of MLB-ready depth at the position; one could even argue that he wasn’t ready to be called up after only 18 total games in Triple-A.

Allen had a stellar debut back in June but has pitched poorly ever since. It’s to be expected — the rookie has only started four games and relieved four games this season in San Diego. He certainly looked good in Double- and Triple-A back in 2017 and 2018, but he has a 6.75 ERA and 1.776 WHIP this season.

The biggest obstacle for him was the sheer amount of hot talent lava in the Padres minor league system. San Diego expects to roll with a rotation of Chris Paddack, MacKenzie Gore, Garrett Richards, one of Joey Lucchesi or Eric Lauer, and perhaps a top-of-the-rotation starter as soon as 2020. Consider other prospects like Luis Patiño and Ryan Weathers, and Allen has no place on that rotation.

Even the bullpen is expected to be crowded. Allen might’ve been able to grab a spot there in the future, but all things considered, he’s just become dispensable. His relief appearances have been awful this season and the experiment has come to an end.

Ultimately, Preller thought that a prospect in a position with minor league depth was worth a top prospect of need. Allen had been cited has part of a trade package in weeks leading up to the deadline too, so this was a good move.

Nevertheless, the good always comes with the bad, so let’s see why this might hurt the team.

No Trevor Bauer? No problem

The biggest issue with this trade depends on how you perceive the 2019 season. Are the Padres looking to claw their way back into playoff contention? Or have they accepted their fate and are focusing solely on the future?

Obviously, San Diego didn’t get Trevor Bauer, who was linked to the team over the past couple weeks. Bauer would’ve been an instant upgrade to a sub-par rotation, becoming the team’s ace right away.

He could’ve possibly marched the team to a wild card spot, helping the inexperienced rotation along the way. Not getting Bauer in a trade with the Indians seems miscalculated for the Padres.

San Diego also lost a strong offensive bat in Reyes, who had 27 home runs this season and a .536 slugging percentage. He was particularly dominant in the first half of the season but has tailed off since.

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That said, the Padres don’t need two right-handed power hitters in the outfielder. As previously mentioned, Renfroe is the better option and it was smart to keep him over Reyes. Franmil will serve as a legitimate designated hitter in the AL where he can showcase his bat without needing to play defense.

Finally, San Diego received a prospect who’s only played as high as Double-A ball. His 2019 batting average is .236, which feels very low in exchange for Reyes and a top 100 pitching prospect.

However, he has a solid OBP of .349, and if the lefty can get on base and provide good defense, then this could end up well for the Padres.

Hot take: this is what the Padres were aiming for all along.

To be blunt, the 2019 playoffs are probably out of reach for San Diego, and Preller knows that. What good does a pitcher on a one-year contract do for a team that’s out of contention? What good does a 40-home-run-hitter do for a team that with a -41 run differential and .310 OBP?

Instead, we should ask the question: what good does a young, top 30 prospect in a clear position of need do for a team that plans to contend next season? Answer: a lot.

This trade has given us better insight into what the team’s goals and priorities are. It could work out for the Padres in the long run, which is — and has always been — far more important than 2019.

For complete coverage of the San Diego Padres 2019 season, be sure to visit Friars on Base all season long.