San Diego Padres: 2019 was never our year, so what should we expect?

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SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA – JULY 13: Manny Machado #13 of the San Diego Padres looks on after an RBI double by Tyler Flowers #25 of the Atlanta Braves during the tenth inning of a game at PETCO Park on July 13, 2019 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /

The San Diego Padres were never expected to chase the playoffs this season. What does that mean for the rest of the year?

I hate to say this but it needs to be said; the San Diego Padres are probably not going to make the playoffs.

For months leading up to the 2019 season, one sentiment was echoed with fierce conviction: 2020 is our year.

Padres fans knew they were in for one final year of rebuilding. This was supposed to be the last season where we monitor certain prospects, tinker with the lineup, and make some last-minute moves before a legitimate playoff push next year.

In preparation, the front office made a few big decisions — primarily, they signed Manny Machado to a 10-year, $300 million contract and brought up the number one prospect to join the Opening Day crew.

Without a doubt, those two moves have contributed significantly to where we are now — 2.5 games back from a wild card spot, still in the thick of a race that’s any anything but settled.

This doesn’t feel like the makings of a rebuilding year.

Nevertheless, we need to take off the rose-colored glasses; the Padres are still missing several pieces for legitimate contention, and especially for a shot at the National League West crown.

It’s certainly possible that the Friars make the playoffs this season; one of my bold predictions for the second half was that the Padres would actually sneak into a wild card spot, stun their opponent in the winner-takes-all match up, and get to dance in the NL Divisional Series.

I still stand by that, too. Making the playoffs would obviously show improvement for a club that hasn’t played October baseball in more than 10 years.

You know what else would be a sign of improvement? Finishing the year above .500, something the Friars haven’t accomplished since 2010.

A taste of the playoffs would put us way ahead of schedule — if this is supposed to be the last year of misery and the Padres make it into October, then count me in.

We should take a step back, though, and try to reevaluate our priorities as we put this season into perspective. I trust A.J. Preller to make decisions with our long-term future in mind, not getting too trade-happy after only 90 games. We shouldn’t — no, cannot — make moves for 2019. We need to make moves for 2020, 2021, 2022, and beyond.

With all that in mind, it’s going to be a bumpy and exciting ride to the end of the year. Here’s what I’m expecting by season’s end.

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JULY 07: Pitcher Joey Lucchesi #37 of the San Diego Padres reacts after giving up a solo home run in the second inning during the MLB game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on July 07, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Victor Decolongon/Getty Images) /

The Padres will lose more disheartening games

The series against the Atlanta Braves was a tough one to swallow. San Diego fell short three times in a row; they were either flat offensively, the bullpen couldn’t hold on, or they just got outmatched.

While it’s frustrating to watch, let’s put this into perspective — the Braves are 58-37, leading the NL East by 7.5 games and owning the league’s 5th best win percentage. Their offense ranks in the Top 10 across the board, including the 6th most runs scored, the 6th best OPS, and the 4th most home runs and RBIs in the MLB.

Friar fans have been spoiled by some thrilling games and series this season; sweeping the then-NL-Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers, a record-setting weekend in Colorado, the walk-off grand slam against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and then taking three out of four from them in L.A.

We’ve also been crushed by some demoralizing losses, though. Being swept by the San Francisco Giants twice in a row, stumbling against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and getting spanked by the Miami Marlins are just a few that come to mind. Playoff teams don’t lose to bad teams this often, and definitely not in the manner that the Padres have.

This is all to say that the series loss to the Braves is the kind that we should expect to lose — and we’re going to lose a lot more of them before the year is up.

In the coming months, the Padres will face plenty of playoff-ready teams, including the Chicago Cubs twice, Tampa Bay Rays, Philadelphia Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers, and the Boston Red Sox. This excludes divisional games with the Dodgers, Rockies, and Diamondbacks too, all of whom are in the playoff mix. The competition will only get better.

Thankfully, the team has shown grit, determination, and a refusal to go down without a fight. The Padres made a last-minute rally in every game against Atlanta, and have several come-from-behind and walk-off wins this season. At the very least, this team is remarkably fun to watch.

However, the front office knows what their priorities are this season, and it’s not necessarily competing for the playoffs. This means they’ll have to make some difficult decisions moving forward.

DENVER, COLORADO – JUNE 16: Hunter Renfroe #10 of the San Diego Padres celebrates with Franmil Reyes #32 after hitting 2 RBI home run in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on June 16, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

Someone near and dear might get traded

ESPN has reported that both Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes are available for trades if the right deal comes along. Each has more than 25 home runs on the season, making quite a name for themselves.

In our bold predictions article last week, I also speculated that this duo would combine for more than 100 home runs on the year (hey, they were on pace for 104 at the All-Star break).

While that prediction hasn’t aged well, these two have been integral parts of the Padres’ success thus far, with more than half of the team’s home runs being thanks to Renfroe, Reyes, and Manny Machado. Manny is locked and loaded with San Diego, but both Renfroe’s and Reyes’ production is exactly what makes them such valuable trade pieces.

Offensively, Hunter has had the better bat than Reyes and has been consistent throughout his career, hitting at least 25 home runs three seasons in a row. His 2019 defense has skyrocketed too, with talks of him winning a Golden Glove not as outrageous as they might’ve sounded last year.

He’s 27 years old, though, and Reyes has the potential to reach Renfroe’s level and beyond. Reyes isn’t a stalwart in the field, but if the second-year starter can improve defensively, become more consistent, and swing for base hits in addition to the fences, then watch out. He has an incredibly bright future in the MLB.

Realistically, neither of them would provide a large enough return for an indisputable, bona fide starter on his own, though. They’d need to be packaged with another promising prospect if the Padres want someone truly special, and don’t be surprised if Preller decides to pulls the trigger and ship someone away.

It’ll be tough to let a beloved player go — both are responsible for some incredible moments this season — but it could prove fruitful in the long-term if the right deal comes along.

SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA – JULY 12: Andres Munoz #54 of the San Diego Padres pitches during the sixth inning of a game against the Atlanta Braves at PETCO Park on July 12, 2019 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /

Prospects to the rescue

This team is young, and for now, the Padres’ potential rests in the hands of certain prospects who will make an appearance over the next few years — or perhaps even at the end of this season.

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The lack of rotational and bullpen depth is getting to them. As it stands, the pitching crew won’t be able to lead this team into the playoffs, much less sustain the success they’ve had thus far.

It’s understandable; the starting rotation is young and inexperienced, and the bullpen outside of Kirby Yates won’t be our bullpen of the future.

The Padres’ pipeline has already shown promise in the majors this season, too. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack aside, players like Logan Allen, Ty France, and Francisco Mejía have all flashed potential one way or another. Andres Muñoz, of course, had a standout debut on Friday too.

Everyone knows that the Padres have the number one farm system in the league, and the stats in the minors prove it too. Friar fans are salivating at our future team: a starting rotation of Chris Paddack, Luis Patiño, and Mackenzie Gore; a back-end bolstered by Muñoz and Kirby; and a lineup that features Tatis Jr., Machado, Eric Hosmer, and Luis Urias.

When September comes around, San Diego will get a better look at their other minor league players as well. The rosters will expand, giving some fringe players the opportunity to show what they’ve got and get their feet wet in the big leagues (*cough cough* Mackenzie Gore, anyone?).

Of course, I hope that a trip to the playoffs is in order this season — but if we don’t make it, I won’t be disappointed. This season has already shown a lot of promise and sure is exciting to watch.

The future is bright, so let’s trust the process and enjoy the ride.

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For complete coverage of the San Diego Padres’ 2019 season, be sure to visit Friars on Base all season long.

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