San Diego Padres: Players Projected For An Improved 2019

SAN DIEGO, CA - SEPTEMBER 15: Eric Hosmer #30 of the San Diego Padres celebrates after hitting a three-run home run during the third inning of a baseball game against the Texas Rangers at PETCO Park on September 15, 2018 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CA - SEPTEMBER 15: Eric Hosmer #30 of the San Diego Padres celebrates after hitting a three-run home run during the third inning of a baseball game against the Texas Rangers at PETCO Park on September 15, 2018 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
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SAN DIEGO, CA – SEPTEMBER 30: Manuel Margot #7 of the San Diego Padres celebrates as he scores the game winning run during the tenth inning of a baseball game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at PETCO Park on September 30, 2018 in San Diego, California. The Padres won 4-3. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CA – SEPTEMBER 30: Manuel Margot #7 of the San Diego Padres celebrates as he scores the game winning run during the tenth inning of a baseball game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at PETCO Park on September 30, 2018 in San Diego, California. The Padres won 4-3. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

Looking over the projected individual performances for 2019, which San Diego Padres players are expected to take a big leap forward next season?

What will a successful 2109 season look like for the San Diego Padres? Depending on who you ask, you are sure to receive very different answers. Some fans may say anything less than playoff contention would be considered a failure. Most fans just want to see an improved record and something other than a last-place finish in the National League West. For others, the team record isn’t necessarily important, instead they want to see individual players take the next step forward.

Let’s go with the final thought there, seeing players take the next step forward. Which Padres players are primed to rebound from 2018 seasons that were, for lack of a better word, bad?

Here’s what I did. Using Fangraphs WAR calculations from 2018 and Steamer’s projections for 2019, I looked at which players on the current roster are projected to put up much better seasons in 2019. There are three players who stand out when comparing these two numbers for individual players. Over the next three slides, you will see a brief review of each of these players and their 2018 seasons and whether or not their positive projections for 2019 are reasonable or not.

First up, a San Diego Padres center fielder who will have to first earn a starting job.

SAN DIEGO, CA – JULY 13: Manuel Margot #7 of the San Diego Padres scores ahead of the throw to Willson Contreras #40 of the Chicago Cubs during the eighth inning of a baseball game against the Chicago Cubs at PETCO Park on July 13, 2018 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CA – JULY 13: Manuel Margot #7 of the San Diego Padres scores ahead of the throw to Willson Contreras #40 of the Chicago Cubs during the eighth inning of a baseball game against the Chicago Cubs at PETCO Park on July 13, 2018 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

San Diego Padres center fielder Manuel Margot has positive projections, if he can earn a starting job.

Entering the 2018 season, Manuel Margot was seen as a player the Padres could build around and was often touted as a cornerstone of this franchise. A former top prospect who showed much promise in his rookie season, Margot begins 2019 with a possible spring training battle with Franchy Cordero for the starting center field job. At the moment, Steamer projects Margot to finish as the team leader in fWAR at 2 Wins Above Replacement.

We could go into detail about how that speaks more about the current talent on the roster, but for Margot, these projections show improvement from his 0.6 fWAR season of 2018. Is this type of improvement feasible for Margot? Absolutely.

Margot’s 2018 stat line left a lot to be desired. A .245 average, .292 on-base percentage, eight home runs, and an ugly 52% success rate in stolen bases (71% success rate in 2017). However, there are positive takeaways that show is capable of improving upon these numbers, as his projections show.

First, his pitch selection and patience at the plate. Margot dropped his strikeout rate to 17% last season and lowered his chase rate and first pitch swing rate (both well below league-average). He may not walk much, but Margot isn’t a free-swinger and is able to wait for the pitch he wants to hit. The result? Margot hit the ball harder and more often, putting the barrel to the ball and increasing his average exit velocity by more than 4 mph.

More competition to keep his job, entering the season healthy (a shot to the ribs that caused some missed time and numerous ugly falls on his wrists which surely had an impact on much of his 2018 season), and a little bit of luck could result in a big upcoming season. If Manuel Margot wants to continue roaming centerfield at Petco Park, he needs all of this to come together for a productive year.

CINCINNATI, OH – SEPTEMBER 7: Brett Kennedy #60 of the San Diego Padres throws a pitch during the first inning of the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on September 7, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI, OH – SEPTEMBER 7: Brett Kennedy #60 of the San Diego Padres throws a pitch during the first inning of the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on September 7, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images) /

Brett Kennedy didn’t have a successful rookie debut with the San Diego Padres. Can he turn it around with a full 2019 season?

While the odds are good for Manuel Margot to break through his sophomore slump, I’m not as high on Brett Kennedy’s odds. Kennedy dominated the Pacific Coast League, turning a very hitter-friendly league into his playground last season. In 16 starts, Kennedy went 10-0 with a 2.72 ERA and striking out 80 hitters in 89 innings for the El Paso Chihuahuas, earning himself a call-up to the San Diego Padres on August 7th.

At the major league level, Kennedy made six starts, going 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. In 26 innings of work, he gave up 36 hits, six home runs, and 12 walks while striking out just 18. This included a four-inning debut against the Milwaukee Brewers in which he gave up six runs on 11 hits, including three home runs.

Kennedy’s final fWAR of 2018 was -0.3 and according to Steamer, that number is expected to rise to 0.7 in his first full season. His final projected line includes 18 starts, a 5-7 record, and 4.44 ERA.

The issue here is that Kennedy has a lot of work to do to make the starting rotation. Mainly a two-pitch pitcher (fastball/slider), Kennedy would fit into the role the San Diego Padres would like to use a number of their pitchers in next season, that of a three-four inning opener. Having the option to reach back with his fastball and slider and focus on short stints could allow his pitches to play up a bit.

Opponents hit .359 against his fastball and slugged .625, while hitters recorded a .333 average against his slider. His changeup was effective (.167 average against, 23% whiff rate), however, he only uses it against left-handed hitters.

Something to watch closely in spring training will be Kennedy’s fastball (used more than 65% of the time). It doesn’t have the big velocity (averages 91 mph) and doesn’t spin (ranked 509th among 582 pitchers who threw at least 200 4-seam fastballs) so he will have to greatly improve his command if he wants to have a successful 2019 season.

Last on our list is last year’s major free agent acquisition, first baseman Eric Hosmer.

CINCINNATI, OH – SEPTEMBER 08: Eric Hosmer #30 hits a home run against the Cincinnati Reds in the fourth inning at Great American Ball Park on September 8, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI, OH – SEPTEMBER 08: Eric Hosmer #30 hits a home run against the Cincinnati Reds in the fourth inning at Great American Ball Park on September 8, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images) /

Last year’s big name free agent signing didn’t live up to the hype in 2018.

Eric Hosmer didn’t make a great first impression with San Diego Padres fans. After winning a Gold Glove in four of his last five seasons, Hosmer’s most memorable play of 2018 might just be the infield pop-up he didn’t catch against the Houston Astros. He was an All-Star in 2016 and received Most Valuable Player Award votes in 2015 and 2017.

In 2018, Hosmer finished with a final line of .253/.322/.398, all of which were his lowest marks in four-to-five seasons. His strikeout rate of 21% was a career-high as he finished with an fWAR of -0.1, not exactly what fans were expecting after the Padres gave him the biggest contract in franchise history.

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Hosmer is projected to increase that -0.1 fWAR to a 1.6 fWAR in 2019, a big improvement but nothing close to what a team’s top paid player should be producing. Based on his seven seasons before coming to San Diego, it should be safe to say that his average and on-base percentage will be a tick higher in 2019 as he continues to adjust to National League pitching, however, what we saw in 2018 is largely the exact type of player Eric Hosmer is.

He is a good player, but not an elite player. Unfortunately, fans will (deservedly) expect him to produce at levels he just isn’t going to reach. Other than his notoriously low launch angle that produces an extreme amount of ground balls, Hosmer was disastrous against breaking pitches last season. He hit just .189 and whiffed on 40% of breaking pitches he saw.

If Hosmer can find the outfield gaps, regain his form against breaking pitches, and continue his upward trend that began after the All-Star break, Hosmer could surpass his 2019 projections and be a pleasant surprise for Padres fans next year.

Next. Padres Could Be Close To Adding A New Starting Pitcher. dark

At the end of the day, every player on this roster will have to improve on their 2018 numbers. The journey begins in just over a month when pitchers and catchers report to Peoria for spring training. Who are you hoping improves the most in 2019? Who do you think doesn’t take that leap in 2019? Let us know!

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