San Diego Padres: Players Projected For An Improved 2019

Looking over the projected individual performances for 2019, which San Diego Padres players are expected to take a big leap forward next season?

What will a successful 2109 season look like for the San Diego Padres? Depending on who you ask, you are sure to receive very different answers. Some fans may say anything less than playoff contention would be considered a failure. Most fans just want to see an improved record and something other than a last-place finish in the National League West. For others, the team record isn’t necessarily important, instead they want to see individual players take the next step forward.

Let’s go with the final thought there, seeing players take the next step forward. Which Padres players are primed to rebound from 2018 seasons that were, for lack of a better word, bad?

Here’s what I did. Using Fangraphs WAR calculations from 2018 and Steamer’s projections for 2019, I looked at which players on the current roster are projected to put up much better seasons in 2019. There are three players who stand out when comparing these two numbers for individual players. Over the next three slides, you will see a brief review of each of these players and their 2018 seasons and whether or not their positive projections for 2019 are reasonable or not.

First up, a San Diego Padres center fielder who will have to first earn a starting job.

Brett Kennedy didn’t have a successful rookie debut with the San Diego Padres. Can he turn it around with a full 2019 season?

While the odds are good for Manuel Margot to break through his sophomore slump, I’m not as high on Brett Kennedy’s odds. Kennedy dominated the Pacific Coast League, turning a very hitter-friendly league into his playground last season. In 16 starts, Kennedy went 10-0 with a 2.72 ERA and striking out 80 hitters in 89 innings for the El Paso Chihuahuas, earning himself a call-up to the San Diego Padres on August 7th.

At the major league level, Kennedy made six starts, going 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. In 26 innings of work, he gave up 36 hits, six home runs, and 12 walks while striking out just 18. This included a four-inning debut against the Milwaukee Brewers in which he gave up six runs on 11 hits, including three home runs.

Kennedy’s final fWAR of 2018 was -0.3 and according to Steamer, that number is expected to rise to 0.7 in his first full season. His final projected line includes 18 starts, a 5-7 record, and 4.44 ERA.

The issue here is that Kennedy has a lot of work to do to make the starting rotation. Mainly a two-pitch pitcher (fastball/slider), Kennedy would fit into the role the San Diego Padres would like to use a number of their pitchers in next season, that of a three-four inning opener. Having the option to reach back with his fastball and slider and focus on short stints could allow his pitches to play up a bit.

Opponents hit .359 against his fastball and slugged .625, while hitters recorded a .333 average against his slider. His changeup was effective (.167 average against, 23% whiff rate), however, he only uses it against left-handed hitters.

Something to watch closely in spring training will be Kennedy’s fastball (used more than 65% of the time). It doesn’t have the big velocity (averages 91 mph) and doesn’t spin (ranked 509th among 582 pitchers who threw at least 200 4-seam fastballs) so he will have to greatly improve his command if he wants to have a successful 2019 season.

Last on our list is last year’s major free agent acquisition, first baseman Eric Hosmer.

Last year’s big name free agent signing didn’t live up to the hype in 2018.

Eric Hosmer didn’t make a great first impression with San Diego Padres fans. After winning a Gold Glove in four of his last five seasons, Hosmer’s most memorable play of 2018 might just be the infield pop-up he didn’t catch against the Houston Astros. He was an All-Star in 2016 and received Most Valuable Player Award votes in 2015 and 2017.

In 2018, Hosmer finished with a final line of .253/.322/.398, all of which were his lowest marks in four-to-five seasons. His strikeout rate of 21% was a career-high as he finished with an fWAR of -0.1, not exactly what fans were expecting after the Padres gave him the biggest contract in franchise history.

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Hosmer is projected to increase that -0.1 fWAR to a 1.6 fWAR in 2019, a big improvement but nothing close to what a team’s top paid player should be producing. Based on his seven seasons before coming to San Diego, it should be safe to say that his average and on-base percentage will be a tick higher in 2019 as he continues to adjust to National League pitching, however, what we saw in 2018 is largely the exact type of player Eric Hosmer is.

He is a good player, but not an elite player. Unfortunately, fans will (deservedly) expect him to produce at levels he just isn’t going to reach. Other than his notoriously low launch angle that produces an extreme amount of ground balls, Hosmer was disastrous against breaking pitches last season. He hit just .189 and whiffed on 40% of breaking pitches he saw.

If Hosmer can find the outfield gaps, regain his form against breaking pitches, and continue his upward trend that began after the All-Star break, Hosmer could surpass his 2019 projections and be a pleasant surprise for Padres fans next year.

At the end of the day, every player on this roster will have to improve on their 2018 numbers. The journey begins in just over a month when pitchers and catchers report to Peoria for spring training. Who are you hoping improves the most in 2019? Who do you think doesn’t take that leap in 2019? Let us know!