San Diego Padres: The Pros And Cons Of Signing Dallas Keuchel

Dallas Keuchel can still bring a lot to the San Diego Padres.

He may not be the Dallas Keuchel of 2015 who won a Cy Young and Gold Glove Award while making his first of two All-Star games, but the seven-year veteran is still a pitcher who is more than capable of making any team in baseball better.

In 34 starts, Keuchel posted a 12-11 record with a 3.74 ERA (3.69 FIP) and logged 200 innings for the first time since his Cy Young season. He finished with a 3.6 fWAR, a big upgrade from his 2.4 fWAR season of 2017.

For context, the Padres haven’t had a starting pitcher worth at least 3.0 fWAR since Tyson Ross in 2015. The closest to achieving that mark since, Drew Pomeranz.

Keuchel is a workhorse, the likes San Diego has not seen in a long while. In three of his last five seasons, Keuchel has worked a minimum of 200 innings, including a career-high 232 innings in 2015. The Padres have had just one pitcher log 200+ innings since 2015, James Shields. Clayton Richard has been touted as the “innings-eater” of the team, yet there is a high probability that he does not make the starting rotation next year.

Across his near 1,200 career innings, Keuchel hasn’t been great at limiting contact, but he has been great at limiting quality contact. Check out his home run allowed rate each season since 2014:

• 2014- 0.50/9 IP
• 2015- 0.66/9 IP
• 2016- 1.07/9 IP
• 2017- 0.93/9 IP
• 2018- 0.79/9 IP

Only seven pitchers in baseball (among qualified starters) gave up fewer home runs per game.

A groundball artist (53.7% groundball rate, the highest mark for qualified pitchers), opponents have recorded an average launch angle of 0.9, 3.4, -1.6, and 4.2 degrees over his past four seasons. The league average in 2018 was 10.9 degrees. With a solid defense behind him, Keuchel should continue to succeed at a high level, despite being a pitch-to-contact pitcher. However, there are a lot of negatives to consider.