San Diego Padres: Four Prospects We Will Soon See In The Top 100
Yesterday, we discussed the seven San Diego Padres prospects who earned a spot on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 list. Today, we’re highlighting four prospects who did not make the list, but may find themselves in the next Top 100 publication.
Naturally, after the release of a top prospects list, one of the first questions asked is, who just missed out? While the San Diego Padres have seven prospects on the current list, there are a number of others who will find themselves in the top 100 very soon.
Today, I want to take a quick glance at four prospects who I believe will be on a Top 100 list in the next year or two. One of these, I believe, will appear on the midseason updated version of this year’s Top 100.
The players mentioned here are in no particular order. Also, keep in mind, all but one of these prospects has yet to play in full-season ball. Once we see how they play against more advanced talent, we’ll have a better idea of what the future holds for these players. However, here are the four I’m highest on.
Jeisson Rosario is a future top of the order hitter for the San Diego Padres.
Jeisson Rosario joined the Padres in 2016 as an international free agent from the Dominican Republic. He received a $1.85 million bonus and made his debut in 2017 with the Arizona League Padres.
By completely skipping the Dominican Summer League, Rosario played against athletes two-three years older than him, on average. The age difference didn’t seem to have any negative impact on the 18-year-old’s game.
Rosario appeared in 52 games and slashed .299/.404/.369/.773. He showed extreme patience at the plate, drawing 33 walks while striking out just 36 times. Rosario added one home run, 10 doubles, and eight stolen bases along the way.
Other than the high on-base percentage, two other statistics stand out. Rosario, a left-handed batter, hit .362 against left-handed pitchers (.279 against RHP). He also hit .385 with runners in scoring position.
Rosario finished the 2017 season ranked 17th on the San Diego Padres’ Top 30 list. There’s no reason not to believe that he won’t begin 2018 at least a few spots higher.
Defensively, Rosario brings plus-speed, more than capable of handling center field duties at the major league level. Scouts believe his arm strength fits well in right field, should he be forced to move over as he progresses.
It’s the bat that will take Rosario far up the organizational ladder. Take a look at his swing below. Rosario shows the ability to get his hands through the zone fairly quickly and drive the ball. He doesn’t project as a power hitter but does exhibit a lot of gap power.
Rosario’s ceiling is that of every-day, top-of-the-order hitter for the Padres. At worst, he’s a fourth/fifth outfielder with an above-average glove and decent speed. Regardless, Rosario is only 18 so there’s plenty of time for him to work his way through the system.
San Diego Padres’ Esteury Ruiz plays mature beyond his years.
Like Rosario, Esteury Ruiz is an 18-year-old international free agent from the Dominican Republic. Ruiz came to San Diego by way of Kansas City. He originally signed with the Royals two years ago for $100,000 and made a quick impact by hitting .313 with five home runs in the Dominican Summer League.
Last summer, the Royals packaged Ruiz with Matt Straham and Travis Wood in exchange for Trevor Cahill, Brandon Maurer, and Ryan Buchter. MLB Pipeline slotted Ruiz as the 30th ranked Padres prospect, but I expect him to move up into the top 20 later this month.
Here’s how Ruiz has performed through his first two seasons in the Dominican Summer League and Arizona League.
2016 (DSL): .313/.378/.512/.889 slash line, 18 2B, 4 3B, 5 HR, 13 SB
2017 (AZL): .350/.395/.602/.997 slash line, 20 2B, 10 3B, 4 HR, 26 SB.
He played in nearly the same number of games and had nearly the same number of at-bats in both seasons. After moving stateside, Ruiz continued his impressive slash-line while doing a much better job of driving the ball into the gaps.
What do evaluators have to say about this San Diego Padres prospect?
Fangraphs gives Ruiz a 50 grade for his hit and fielding tools along with a 45 grade on his power. Offensively, he’s developed well beyond his years, so let’s wait and see how Ruiz handles more refined pitching in the high minors. He will be 19 when the MiLB season starts and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Padres put him in Fort Wayne to begin the year.
The consensus among evaluators appears to be that Ruiz is, at worst, a utility infielder on a major league roster. Defense appears to be his major weakness at this point. His quickness provides incredible range, but he has struggled with the glove the last two seasons.
While you can never have too many prospects in your system, the Padres will have a lot of tough decisions to make over the next two-three years as this crop develops. Ruiz will be in competition with Gabriel Arias, Luis Urias, Fernando Tatis, Jr, Hudson Potts, and Eguy Rosario for a position within the infield.
Let’s say each of these prospects only reaches their projected floor, that’s still six serviceable major leaguers. Any odd-prospects out will be very valuable trade chips for the Padres to bring in needed veteran pieces when this team is ready to compete.
Logan Allen is the workhorse pitcher the San Diego Padres need.
Logan Allen, the “old man” of this bunch, came to San Diego as part of a fantastic trade. The Padres sent closer Craig Kimbrel to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for Allen, Manuel Margot, Carlos Asuaje, and Javier Guerra.
The 13th ranked prospect for the Padres joins a long list of top-level left-handed pitchers in this system. Ranked above Allen are Mackenzie Gore, Adrien Morejon, Eric Lauer, and Joey Lucchesi. Allen, the fifth-ranked LHP on this team, may have the longest career of them all.
He began last year in Fort Wayne where he went 5-4 with a 2.11 ERA. Through 68 innings, Allen gave up just one home run and worked an 85/26 K/BB ratio.
A promotion to High-A Lake Elsinore was met with similar results. Allen pitched 56 innings, gave up just two home runs and worked a 3.97 ERA with a 57/18 K/BB ratio. While there was a big uptick in his ERA, he still exhibited solid command and kept the ball inside the park.
What does Allen bring to the San Diego Padres?
Allen brings a plus-fastball (92-93 with good movement) and two above-average pitches in his changeup and curveball. As he moves up to AA and beyond, Allen will need to stay on top of his command. It’s above average right now, but will it stick against more advanced bats?
I love his delivery. As you can see below, he starts with a high leg kick, then reaches way behind him, bringing the ball at or below his back knee. That, combined with a slight hitch right before he throws, provides just enough deception to upset the hitter’s timing.
A successful AA debut may help Allen earn a brief stint in the majors by the end of the season. I believe he will develop nicely into a back of the rotation pitcher. Imagine a 4th/5th starter that can routinely give you six innings, work 7/8 K/9 innings, and rarely gives up a home run. I’ll take that any day.
Is Gabriel Arias this year’s Fernando Tatis, Jr for the San Diego Padres?
After a successful winter season in Australia, I wrote about the emergence of Gabriel Arias as an elite Padres prospect. You can read the full piece here, but let’s review the highlights.
Arias signed as an extremely raw 16-year-old out of Venezuela in 2016, but quickly displayed a number of plus-tools. He joined Jeisson Rosario within the top 15 of the top international free agents list. Since then, he’s made quite the impression of the Padres’ coaching staff and national scouts/evaluators.
Arias began his Padres career in the Arizona League, appearing in just 37 games before earning an aggressive promotion to Fort Wayne. He managed to hit .242 (15-62) in his brief stint as the youngest player in full-season minor ball.
This winter, Arias continued his development in the Australian Baseball League. Appearing in 29 games for the Canberra Cavalry, Arias slashed .271/.310/.486/.796 with five home runs.
Why such the hype around Gabriel Arias?
First and foremost, Arias brings elite level defense. His infield range and glove have been graded as plus-plus and he has a powerful and accurate arm. Scouts note that his is good enough for the outfield also.
As I mentioned in the previous piece on Arias, both Kyle Glaser of Baseball America and Eric
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Longenhagen of Fangraphs are very high on Arias. Here’s a quote from my previous piece,
“The biggest question is his offense. Kyle Glaser of Baseball America has been quoted as saying that Arias has a “top-flight makeup”, and is “rapidly improving as a hitter.” Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs backs up those claims. “He’s an everyday player at the very least,” said Longenhagen of how he projects Arias’ future role.”
The only reason Rosario, Ruiz, and Arias were not in serious contention for making the Top 100 list at the moment is because of their age. All three need a lot of development, but they are all trending in the right direction. Coaches within the Padres system are extremely high on them and strongly believe that all three are future major leaguers. At 20, Logan Allen has the best chance of cracking the mid-season Top 100 list.
Stay tuned to Friars On Base as we bring you updates all year long on their progress through the 2018 MiLB season.