San Diego Padres: A Guide To The Perfect Offseason

The San Diego Padres have some spots to fill in the rotation, and have an overstuffed outfield and keystone. General manager AJ Preller can have a great offseason by not doing much at all.

With the new CBA rumored to have been agreed upon, the hot stove will likely start to heat up in the coming weeks.

Players like Edwin Encarnacion, Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Dexter Fowler, and Justin Turner all still sitting on the free agent market, and others like Chris Sale, Andrew McCutchen, and Jay Bruce are rumored to be available for the right package.

With the San Diego Padres in a rebuilding phase, however, they aren’t going to acquire any of these stars. What they need to do is plan for the future, and fill out their roster with stopgaps at thin positions.

Below are listed what should be the main focuses of the Padres offseason in order to ensure they can achieve those goals.

Starting Pitching:

With Clayton Richard and Edwin Jackson gone as free agents and 2015’s Opening Day starter Tyson Ross coming off of surgery, the rotation is definitely a question mark. While A.J. Preller isn’t likely to sign a compensation eligible free agent, he could sign a midlevel replacement to fill a spot.

Another option would be to look at minor league free agents and hope one of them works out, a la Ryan Buchter. Some options include the aforementioned Richard and Jackson, Jorge De La Rosa, Derek Holland, and Jake Peavy.

Clayton Richard/Edwin Jackson: In my opinion, one of these two, if not both, will be resigned. Clayton Richard was a Padre from 2009-13, and after being released by the Cubs, was signed by the Padres. Over 53.2 innings in the Padres rotation, he delivered a 2.52 ERA, although paired with a high 1.53 WHIP. Edwin Jackson on the other hand, was signed sooner, and thus pitched more innings. He pitched to a 5.89 ERA and a nearly identical 1.55 WHIP, while allowing 1.5 HR/9, never a good sign for someone who pitches his home games in spacious Petco Park. Neither of these pitchers will break the bank, or will get more than a year or two for a contract.

Jorge De La Rosa: Having pitched for the Rockies for 9 years, De La Rosa is familiar with the NL West. He’s also the rare pitcher to have extended success at the hitter’s heaven known as Coors Field. However, his success didn’t follow him into 2016, as he struggled to a 5.51 ERA. He also saw his walks rise for the third straight year to 4.2 BB/9. However his familiarity with the ballparks of the NL West and his low price tag after a bad year should make him a target in free agency.

Derek Holland: Rumored to be a Padres target since he’s become a free agent, Derek Holland is the perfect target for a rebuilding team like the Friars. A young and talented hurler, he can be a good #3 starter when healthy. He does carry risk, as he’s only pitched more than 170 innings 3 times in his career, his velocity is down, and had shoulder issues in 2016. Those shoulder issues could’ve contributed to a down 2016 where he had a 4.95 ERA, while only striking out 5.6 per nine. But the reward will outweigh the risk if signed on a 1 year deal with a team option attached to it.

Jake Peavy: Ahh, Jake Peavy, the former Cy Young winner from San Diego. The good old days, weren’t they? Most recently a Giant, he started the year in the rotation before being relegated to the bullpen, finishing with a 5.54 ERA. However, a Peavy signing would be less about how good he is now, but how good he was 10 years ago. This would be purely to put butts in seats. And should he have a good first half, Preller might be able to squeeze a prospect out of him at the deadline.

Clearing Up The OF/2B Logjams:

Second base: Probably the more pressing decision, the Padres have three MLB ready 2B on the roster with Ryan Schimpf, Cory Spangenberg, and Carlos Asuaje, as well as Jose Rondon who made his MLB debut in 2016; a shortstop by trade, he could slide over to the keystone should injuries require it. Each one brings something different to the table; Schimpf hits for power and walks a lot(12.7 XBH% and BB%), Spangenberg hits for average and good defense(career 103 OPS+), and Asuaje brings versatility and is a good overall hitter(.321 AVG at AAA in 2016).

While trading them isn’t a good way to clear it, one thing they could do is trade Yangervis Solarte, who had a career year, and then shift Schimpf over to third, where he seemed a better defensive fit in his limited time there. That still leaves two players for one position, but both are still semi-unproven. Spangenberg only has one full MLB season under his belt, and Asuaje debuted in September. Let them battle it out in the spring, and let the logjam figure itself out.

Outfield: In the Craig Kimbrel trade, Preller got stud CF Manuel Margot, who’s speed and defense alone might make him a regular, or at least a fourth OF type. But he also possesses a plus contact tool, and his gap power paired with the spacious left and right center gaps of Petco will pair well. But when he is ready to take on a MLB starting gig, which could very well be 2017, it will cause a shift in the Padres outfield.

The Padres already have a stellar defensive CF in Travis Jankowski, but Margot would likely shift him to LF, with Hunter Renfroe occupying RF. This would shift Alex Dickerson to a bench/pinch hitting role, unless he starts over Jankowski.

You see,the Padres already have a stellar defensive CF in Travis Jankowski, but Margot would likely shift him to LF, with Hunter Renfroe occupying RF. This would shift Alex Dickerson to a bench/pinch-hitting role, unless he starts over Jankowski. The Padres already have a stellar defensive CF in Travis Jankowski, but Margot would likely shift him to LF, with Hunter Renfroe occupying RF. This would shift Alex Dickerson to a bench/pinch-hitting role, unless he starts over Jankowski. And this is all without mentioning Jabari Blash, the toolsy and powerful Rule V pick who hit 32 “Blash-toffs” in 2015.

The most discussed outcome is a trade of Jankowski or Dickerson, but I think Preller should hold off to trade either. This is so that he can see how Renfroe and Margot fare against top-level pitching over a 162 game season, and making a decision next year. He can also platoon Jankowski and Margot in CF, but that would take away AB’s from Margot. I think come Opening Day, Dickerson should be LF, Margot CF, and Renfroe RF. They can keep Jankowski as a fourth OF, but not use him that way. They could have him start in LF one day, then the next day CF, and then a day off, as well as the occasional start in RF.

Next: Which Contracts will be Tendered?

Recap:

So in order to pull off a perfect Padres offseason, A.J. Preller doesn’t need to make any splashy moves like 2014, or even trade veterans for prospects like 2015. He just needs to give his young players playing time to develop and to sign some pitchers to fill out a thin rotation. Leave the splashy moves to the contending teams this time, A.J.