Padres 2016 FOB Predictions

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Mark “Wisco” Whelan Predictions

It’s that time of year again, when we all get to emulate Punxatawny Phil, the prognosticating groundhog who lets us know if there will be six weeks more of Winter. Our job, however, carries a significantly worse than 50-50 chance of being right. As FOB Editor Daryll Dorman puts it, here’s our chance to be either sages or idiots. That’s right, it’s time to make our predictions for the 2016 San Diego Padres. Here goes nothing…

Team MVP: Let’s start off with one that will certainly have people calling me an idiot. This year’s Most Valuable Padre will be Center Fielder Jon Jay. Jay brings something to San Diego that the Padres haven’t seen in almost a decade – an ability to hit .300. (Any guesses who the last Padres regular to hit .300 was? Answer below.)

Manager Andy Green planted Jay as the starting Center Fielder and leadoff man early in Spring Training, and Jay has responded with a .327 BA and .383 OBP, as of this writing. Green looks likely to give the veteran every chance to succeed. The career .287 hitter is coming off a season marred by a wrist injury, but has had ample time to heal. He’s going from the fishbowl that is Cardinals baseball to the relative obscurity of San Diego. The low-pressure situation, combined with this being his walk year, make Jay a good candidate for a strong comeback. Look for Jay to hit over .300 and score 100+ runs.

Runner-up: Wil Myers

Team Cy Young: Here’s a tricky one. With every entrenched Padres starter being the subject of trade rumors, any one of them might be gone by the time you read this prediction. But if he remains a Padre all year, Tyson Ross will be the team’s top starter. Green named Ross as the Opening Day starter early in Spring Training, an unusual move. But Ross has clearly been the Padres most effective starter the last two seasons. One concern is his walk rate, which regressed last year after he eliminated the four-seamer from his arsenal. But Ross is smart, as is Darren Balsley. Expect them and Green to figure out the most effective approach for Ross. Add a much better defense behind him, and a sub-3.00 ERA looks like a possibility again.

Runner-up: Robbie Erlin

Quiz answer: The last Padres regular to hit .300 in a season was Brian Giles (.306) in 2008. Jesus Guzman hit .312 in 2011, but was limited to 247 ABs.

A few other predictions….

Team leader in HR: Myers with 28

Rookie of the Year: Colin Rea

Rule 5 guy who sticks with the team all year: Jabari Blash. That kind of power is too special to let go too soon.

Won’t finish the season as Padres: James Shields, Derek Norris

Team record: 81-81

Next: Daryll Dorman Predictions

Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports /

Daryll Dorman Padres Predictions

For as long as sports has been played, people have been trying to figure out what will happen. Yet unlike predicting someone crying on “The Bachelor”, you just can’t predict baseball correctly very often. Could we have predicted that the Mets would get to the World Series last year? That Matt Harvey – the Dark Knight – would not be able to get through the 9th inning in a World Series game they needed to win to stay alive? What about that after overhauling the roster, spending more money than ever before, the Padres would finish with a worse record in 2015 than 2014. Sorry to add salt to a fresh wound, but here at Friars On Base we’ve been ruminating on the lost 2015 for awhile now and we are ready for 2016 to be a triumphant storyline. So here is how that happens.

Team MVP: Wil Myers. To describe the 2015 season for Wil Myers is more to say “incomplete” than much else. He is only 25 years old, yet has not played more than 90 games a year in the majors in three tries. Last year he played in just 60 games – for context he has played 19 already in Spring Training. He hit 8 home runs in those 60 games, which projects out to around 22 home runs for the year. He also walked 27 times in that limited timeframe, still good enough for 7th on the team for the whole year! Yangervis Solarte walked only 6 more times in an additional 300 at bats! Moving Myers to first base should help him stay healthy and on the field. If so, he could have a great season and almost make the Padres forget they traded the now Nationals shortstop of the future Trea Turner for him.

Team Cy Young: I am going to go out on a limb on this one and one more time project Andrew Cashner to have a good year. It is a contract year, so ironically he could well pitch himself out of a Padres uniform the year he finally shows the potential we have seen at times over his Padres career. The defense is much improved behind him, and if nothing else cut down on those 22 unearned runs that happened behind him. Of course, he still allowed 89 earned runs, but I think with improved confidence and finally a full season of pitching under his belt – he can take hold of that momentum to put it all together this year.

Mr. Consistency: I am very excited to see what Yangervis Solarte can do with a full season at third base. He was one of the Padres best hitters last year, and if he can learn to walk more this year and his defense improves some at the hot corner, he could be the .290/15/85 RBI third baseman we’ve been seeking for years and desperately wanted Chase Headley to be every season, not just 2013.

Rookie of the Year: Manuel Margot. I expect Margot to get called up mid year and take the league by storm after some seasoning in the Minor Leagues to start the season. I don’t see Melvin Upton Jr.being a full time answer in left field, and if Margot is mashing in AAA why waste his talent there when you could him some MLB seasoning in 2016 to be ready to attack fully in 2017? The future is brighter for the Padres than many think, and seeing Margot get a taste of that future will be huge for Padres fans.

Next: Keenan Mrozek Predictions

Mar 30, 2016; Peoria, AZ, USA; San Diego Padres pitcher Tyson Ross against the Seattle Mariners during a spring training game at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

Keenan Mrozek Padres Predictions

In 2015 the Padres finished with the third most strikeouts of any NL hitters. The recently departed Justin Upton, Jedd Gyorko, Wil Venable, Will Middlebrooks and Clint Barmes combined for 1839 plate appearances and 454 strikeouts. ZiPS predicts, usually with a marked degree of accuracy, that their replacements this year, Jon Jay, Jose Pirela, Alexei Ramirez and Travis Jankowski, will accumulate 1941 plate appearances and strike out only 281 times. Alexei Ramirez is predicted to strike out only 65 times in 609 plate appearances! If this holds true the Padres could see a reduction in their strikeout total of over 170 strikeouts, or one less per game. This reduction would have had the 2015 team as the second lowest total in the NL.

More from Friars on Base

The Mets of last year, who’s offense finished with the sixth most strike outs in the NL, were the first NL pennant winner since the 2008 Phillies to be outside of the five lowest strikeout totals in the NL. When you put the ball in play you force the other team to execute, and eventually they will fail to execute, so less strikeouts means more chances to get on base. I think this will be a huge upgrade for the Padres and result in them winning more games than last year. The last time the Padres finished in the lowest five? 2005, when they won the NL west with a team devoid of stars but with good pitching. Ryan Klesko led the team that year with 18 homers. There is hope Padres fans.

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