Padres Editorial: What's in a Number?

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It was a tough season for the Padres, but a total loss?. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

In 2005, the San Diego Padres won the National League West with a record of 82-80. In 2006, they did the trick with a record of 88-74. The following year they won one more game in the regular season but ended the regular season tied with the Rockies, forcing a one game playoff which they lost in dramatic fashion. After a couple of poor seasons 2010 came along which saw the Padres surprise the baseball establishment with a 3 team race between the Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants and the Padres going down to the final weekend. The Padres ended up missing out on the playoffs despite winning 90 games.

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The point is – win totals can be deceptive when it comes to measuring a team – particularly in a division where with an unbalanced schedule the level of competition in your division can directly affect your overall schedule. In 2013 and likely this season the second wild card has been from the same division, with the Giants sneaking in 2014 and winning the World Series from it.

So with the Padres entering Wednesday nights game with a record of 68-78, we are curious to see just how they will finish up as the ownership group has invested more money into the team. Last year they managed to continue their 3 year one win improvement trend with 77 wins. Woohoo. For the Padres to win 78 games this year in the final 16 games they would need to go 10-6 for a team that stands 11 games under .500. So from a win total perspective, this team could be the worst Padres team in years. So how can we measure this team?

I propose three simple measuring sticks up for grading:

1) Building Blocks for 2016

2) New Acquisition Performance

3) Minor League Prospects

Next: Building Blocks for 2016

Do these three form a Padres core for 2016 and beyond? Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Building Blocks for 2016?

With the Padres best player Justin Upton likely to leave via free agency – the question of who to build around for 2016 does not have a solid focal point. That said, both Wil Myers and Matt Kemp show signs of positive returns heading into 2016. Matt Kemp might be the frustrating one to watch and this year his pre and post-All Star Breaks were almost too extreme to be very valuable at all in the first half. His second half though shows that he DOES have the body to continue to be productive but can he spread his numbers out a bit more please? Unfortunately the Padres got a break on his salary this year and they will have to pay a significantly higher portion next season. From three million to eighteen million in fact. So for him to have the season he is having this year at his 2015 salary – it’s a win. If we think that he can justify his 2016 salary – I think that would be incorrect and a scary proposition.

Wil Myers is an interesting one. In his short MLB career he has struggled with injuries, and unfortunately this year has been no different. When in the lineup, he is a spark plug at the top of the lineup and has shown good versatility to play first base or corner outfield next season. This verdict will come down to if he can play at least 140 games next year or not.

Yangervis Solarte – When Solarte came in the Chase Headley trade no one knew exactly what to think of him. This year he has hit his way into basically the everyday lineup and after moving around position-wise a lot at the beginning of the season, and has really settled into third base since Will Middlebrooks was sent down to AAA. He leads the team in batting average and has a certain knack for driving in runners as well.

Jedd Gyorko and Yonder Alonso: I combine these two because they were the infielder hold outs from past seasons. Alonso had a good overall season – but is it really what we want from our first baseman? Gyorko has been playing shortstop and showing okay range and once again another nice second half – but with Gyorko and Kemp showing to be second-half only players, won’t the Padres be in big holes by the All Star break year after year?

On the pitching side, Tyson Ross had another very solid season and Andrew Cashner struggled but was also the victim of a lot of bad luck losses, defense, and stayed healthy for a full season. I expect them both to have better seasons in 2016 and continue to be a strong core along with James Shields in the Padres rotation.

Overall Grade: C+

Next: New Acquisition Performances

If you didn’t pay attention all winter you wouldn’t recognize many Padres starting 2015. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

New Acquisition Performances

The Padres didn’t just spend last off-season picking up one or two pieces – they picked up half of a roster. An entire outfield, a third baseman, a catcher, a closer, and a starting pitcher. As discussed above while all of those pieces were largely upgrades over what the team was getting out of those positions a year ago – it has not translated into actual success. I touched on a couple that are staying next year like Matt Kemp and Wil Myers, but we can’t leave out Justin Upton.

Justin Upton was great for the Padres this season. He will command a large salary in the off-season that unless his brother discount is in the millions will price him out of San Diego. He made the All Star Team, had some absolute moonshot home runs, and led the team with his play throughout the entire season. Also, we can’t forget that Matt Kemp hit for the first cycle in Padres history.

Craig Kimbrel has had another dynamite season as the closer despite a rough start – but the biggest question with him is if the Padres really need to be paying so much for him with Kevin Quackenbush or others possibly able to take over that role? Joaquin Benoit though is also a free agent which might make Kimbrel that much more valuable for at least another year until the Padres young pitchers can prove they would be able to hold down the closer’s role if Kimbrel were to be used as trade bait in the future.

James Shields has served up a lot of home runs this year – but he will likely make good on his promise of over 200 innings pitched and certainly doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. I’ll give him an overall positive review.

For the good picks were some bad ones…Will Middlebrooks continued his regression from a Red Sox prospect and was sent down to AAA. Derek Norris has improved on his defense, but didn’t hit much better than Rene Rivera last season. Shawn Kelley and Brandon Maurer ended up being key bullpen cogs but also had some injury woes that hurt the Padres in August/September down the stretch. Still, other bullpen stalwarts like Nick Vincent and Dale Thayer weren’t quite as predictable which led to their necessity as well.

Grade: B, largely because of Justin Upton

Next: Minor League Prospects

Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Minor League Prospects

Early in the season, we were quite disappointed about watching Padres players perform well elsewhere in the major leagues. We saw Matt Wisler get called up and look outstanding early on. Jace Peterson won the starting job at second base with the Braves and we wondered if we had forfeited the future for some rentals. Now though? In his last 9 games Wisler has an ERA over 9. Peterson is hitting .238. So perhaps giving them up wasn’t so bad.

The two top prospects the Padres did keep were Austin Hedges and Hunter Renfroe. Travis Jankowski could be an interesting piece of the puzzle for the Padres in 2016 as they hope to add speed and defense to their outfield situation. There is hope that Casey Kelly and Robbie Erlin might be able to man some innings for the Padres, but there is a lack of a bona fide star in their minor league midst pitching wise.

Hedges showed some good signs this season but not perhaps seized the opportunity that he could’ve done and made Norris expendable for next season. He is somewhere between being a good backup and a 8 hitter backup. His performance in 2016 might be a huge indicator of his future in the major leagues.

Renfroe though is the crown jewel. He had another terrific season in the minor leagues this season and the Padres hope that he might make people forget about losing Justin Upton sooner than later.

Yes, more depth would be great, but in reality it only takes a few successes to warrant all the minor league players that DO flame out. If they get a few wins and Preller can maintain his reputation of a great draft manager built while with the Rangers, this year may not have been the big clean out that many suggested.

Grade: B-

Overall Grade: B-

The Padres need more minor league depth and a player or group of players to build around. Whether or not Will Myers, Jedd Gyorko and Kemp can be that core is a possibility but not quite sure any one of them did enough this year to say so with supreme confidence. While the Dodgers build around Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Yasiel Puig and Adrian Gonzalez, the Padres have yet to acquire a similar core that can withstand a full season.

Padres Editorial: What’s in a Number?

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