Padres First Half Review

Jun 3, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres first baseman Yonder Alonso (23) lines out during the sixth inning against the New York Mets at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The Padres had the most aggressive offseason in baseball spearheaded by rookie GM A.J. Preller. After what might be the most disappointing first half in all of baseball, let us look at the good, the bad, and the ugly of the first half of the 2015 baseball season.

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The Good

Yonder Alonso. Yes, he had another stint on the disabled list. But amongst all qualifiers he is tied with Justin Upton for the highest OPS+ on the team. Alonso has not fulfilled the 25-home run power potential he was said to have when Josh Byrnes traded for him. But he is on pace for over 20 doubles. Considering that he spent a few weeks on the DL, that is not too bad of a total. But most importantly, he has a .378 on-base percentage. The Pads are ranked dead last in the NL in on base percentage. Alonso is the only player on the team other than Will Venable who has an OBP that is above what we thought. He has been a pleasant surprise. Hopefully, he was just a late bloomer and will continue to hit at this pace.

Brandon Maurer. He has been the best bullpen arm thus far. He has a stellar 2.11 ERA in 42.2 innings – the most in the bullpen. While the Padres as a team having given up far too many home runs, Maurer has given up only one. His 5.9 hits/9 is fabulous. And despite having a lively fastball and very good breaking ball, Maurer has only struck out 7.0 batters per nine innings. This indicates that he is a smart pitcher who doesn’t want to strike out every batter. Who would have thought that Maurer would have had a better first half than Craig Kimbrel and Joaquin Benoit?

The catchers’ defense. In 2014, the Padre catchers combined for the best team pitch framing in baseball. During the offseason A.J. Preller unloaded those catchers and brought in Derek Norris. Norris – known as an offense-first catcher – has thrown out 35-percent of would-be base stealers which is twice as high as his 2014 percentage. While not being as good as Yasmani Grandal or Rene Rivera, Norris is above the league average in terms of pitch framing. Then there is Austin Hedges. He has thrown out half of all attempted base stealers in a league where 28-percent are thrown out. But even more important, amongst catchers with at last 20 game played, no player turns balls into strikes better than Hedges. The super defensive prospect has framed an extra 3.21 strikes per game which is twice as good as Grandal and a full strike above all catchers in baseball other than David Ross. So amongst all catchers with at least 20 games caught, Austin Hedges has been the best defensive catcher in all of baseball. Yes, all of baseball.

Honorable mentions: Tyson Ross (3.35 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 9.6 K/9), Clint Barmes (.324 OBP, .110 OPS+)

May 29, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher James Shields (33) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the first inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The Bad

The defense. While the catchers have been quite good, the other players in the field have not. Wil Myers has a -1.0 defensive WAR in just 35 games this season. The Padres 20th ranked defensive efficiency (the rate at which balls in play are turned into outs) would probably be worse had Myers not gone on the DL. Still, 20th in baseball is bad. The team’s total zone total fielding runs above average is -16. Basically, the Friars’ defense has given up 16 runs more than would have been given up with a league average defense.

James Shields. Through the first couple months, he was giving up far too many home runs. Far too many. Like 11 in May alone. Since, he has simply given up too many runs. His 4.16 FIP (what a pitcher’s ERA would be when factoring out defense) indicates that Shields has actually benefitted from the Padres’ defense. His 4.01 ERA is a run per nine too high to not call the signing a bust thus far. While his strike out rate is higher than ever (10.1/nine innings) so too are his walks (3.1/nine). Frankly, he is one of the biggest disappointments thus far.

Andrew Cashner. His 4.10 ERA hides the fact that Cashner has given up 19 unearned runs. His FIP is 3.86 indicating that even his ERA is higher because of the poor defense playing behind him. But his 5.66 runs per nine is unacceptably high for the velocity, movement, and control Cashner possesses. And if his ERA was 3.86, then it would still be too high.

Dishonorable mentions: Jedd Gyorko (.294 OBP, .621 OPS), Odrisamer Despaigne (4.64 ERA)