Padres Editorial: 3 Questions the Padres Must Address in March
The newest San Diego Padre and former Los Angeles Dodger, Matt Kemp is all smiles with Manager Bud Black as he puts on a Padres jersey for the first time during a press conference at Petco Park. — Howard Lipin / U-T San Diego
Pitchers and catchers are reporting and full-scale Spring Training is just around the corner. Never in my 23 years of life have I ever seen such buzz and excitement surrounding a Padres season. Not in 1998 nor 2005 or 2006. The lineup has more beef and the clubhouse has gained confidence. Tickets are selling like never before. Everyone is counting down the days until April 6th when the Padres take the field at Dodger Stadium for the first official game of 2015. Spring Training will mostly be about how all of these new pieces will gel together to make a successful product on the field. Even with all these shiny new toys the Padres have acquired, some questions still remain.
This Padres team is by no means perfect. Nor will they be able to just waltz on the field and expect to be in the World Series come October. It is going to take work and patience. There are some questions aside from the main 3 addressed here that need answering: Who will hit leadoff? Who will be the everyday 3rd baseman and shortstop? Which outfielder gets left off of the Opening Day roster? There are so many things the Padres need to get done before they can think about contending. It’s February and a lot can happen between Spring Training and the postseason. Here are the 3 main questions the Padres need to answer during Spring Training….
May 11, 2014; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays right fielder Wil Myers (9) attempted to catch a fly ball during the second inning against the Cleveland Indians at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
1. Will the defense really be a huge issue?
Many are concerned with putting an outfielder with a lot of mileage like Matt Kemp in a spacious outfield like Petco. Questions arise: will he be able to cover his ground? Will his “runs surrendered” as a defender outweigh what he contributes offensively? Also, catcher has to be looked at as well.
Yasmani Grandal and especially Rene Rivera were solid behind the plate. Derek Norris can hold his own but the concern is he won’t be able to do it as well as Rivera did, especially handling a solid pitching staff like San Diego’s.
It has been announced that the Padres intend to stick Wil Myers out in center, counting on his athleticism more than experience. He rarely played centerfield with Tampa Bay, though he played the position well in the Minors. Justin Upton has the speed to be able to play a spacious left field and many forget Kemp actually played center field in 41 games last year and he is 4 seasons removed from a Gold Glove. So the fact that he is in right field shouldn’t be a huge concern. Myers has played 9 games in centerfield in the major leagues with a DRS (defensive runs saved) of +1.
Defensively, the Padres don’t look as bad as I originally thought after looking at some numbers. A healthy Kemp will create offensive enough to make up for his possible lack of ability as an every day right fielder.
The Friars will also play 10 interleague games on the road in which they would need a DH, which Kemp could easily do. Not to mention that the Padres have speedy, athletic reserves in Will Venable and Cameron Maybin to plug in when crucial defensive situations arise.
Sep 20, 2014; Bronx, NY, USA; Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Brandon Morrow (23) pitches during the ninth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Toronto Blue Jays won 6-3. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
2. Who will get the nod at #5 in the starting rotation?
We all know that 1-4 is set with James Shields, Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross and Ian Kennedy (in no particular order, but then again, it could be). There are several candidates to get the rock on the 5th day. Odrisamer Despaigne, Robbie Erlin and Brandon Morrow all have thrown their hats in the ring, and with a solid spring, Matt Wisler could also be in the mix.
Despaigne has a lot under his belt and has proven he can hang with the big boys. In 16 starts last year, he posted a 3.36 ERA in 96 innings. Erlin would be nice because he would be the only lefty in the rotation. He too has decent MLB experience with 20 starts for the Friars. He has a little higher of an ERA at 4.58. Morrow is the veteran among the candidates with 8 seasons and 108 starts so far. He is well-tested pitching in the AL East these past 5 years. He has struggled lately but if he can return to his 2012 form (10-7, 2.96 ERA, 178 K’s), he could very well earn this spot.
Wisler went 9-5 for Triple-A El Paso last season in 22 starts. His 5.01 ERA was a concern but again, with a solid spring, that could be forgivable. The jury is still out on who will get it. A team that intends to make a postseason push needs to have a deep rotation, starters 1 through 5 need to be solid. The ideal situation is that someone performs so well in spring that Bud Black will have no choice but to stick them in the rotation. These next few weeks will say a lot.
Sep 10, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Ian Kennedy (22) walks off the mound as Padres manager Bud Black makes the call to the bullpen for a pitching change in the seventh inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
3. Can the team finally get off to a hot start in April?
It is no secret that the Padres have historically struggled out of the gate. Last year was no exception. After winning the first game last year in dramatic fashion on ESPN, the Friars dropped their next 4 games and were 2-6 in the first 8 games. They finished the month of April 12-16. This was not a one-time thing.
In 2013, they were 10-16, 2012 was worse at 7-17. Having a losing April just makes the team have to work harder earlier in the year to keep up. Ideally, you want a hot start so there is some room for error when the dog days of summer come along and disabled lists start lengthening. The Padres have stumbled out of the gate a lot lately and have not had a winning record in April since 2010, and that year they were right there in the division race until the final days of the season. A winning April sets a team up to contend when the summer heats up.
On paper, it looks like the Padres should easily have a winning April with all this new firepower. A word of caution: baseball is a team sport and teams need time to gel. Examples can be found throughout sports: the NBA’s Cleveland Cavaliers “dream team” this year has taken a couple of months to finally come together, but now they are in the hunt for the postseason. Patience is a key word here.
But at the same time, the Padres cannot afford a 12-16 April if they want to chase the Dodgers and Giants. The Padres will be better than last year when all is said and done, but it will behoove the Padres to play above .500 baseball right from the get-go.
June 21, 2013; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres manager Bud Black (20) prior to the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Spring Training is 38 days long. 30 games will be played before it counts. A lot of things can happen (hopefully, all good). Everyone is saying the Padres should be right there, in contention all season long. If that is true, and the Padres want to achieve 84+ wins this season, these 3 questions need to be resolved. Playing good defense, having a solid, deep rotation and getting off to a hot start are all recipes for October baseball. That is what we want in San Diego, October baseball.
A.J. Preller has been busy. That Padres look better. The Padres finally have recognizable hitters, and power hitters to boot. But this is all on paper. Not a single one of the 162 games has been played yet. In just a few days, we will finally be able to see Kemp, Myers, Upton, Norris, Will Middlebrooks, and James Shields all donning the “SD” caps with the navy and white.
This may be one of the most important Spring Training Camps in franchise history. With a good spring, the Padres can springboard themselves into a fantastic season with all of San Diego enjoying the ride all summer long. This could rejuvenate a whole entire city. We will find out a lot about the 2015 Padres during the next month in Peoria.
Next: Padres Interested In Alfredo Aceves?
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