Padres Editorial: Ranking the Off-Season Moves Part I

New Padres’ GM A.J. Preller. Mandatory Credit-utsandiego.com

This San Diego Padres off-season has been full of excitement. The additions made to the team have pumped energy into the city of San Diego. From San Ysidro to Ocenside, Padres pride hasn’t been this evident for 10-plus years. The team has shown its willingness to put a competitive major league team out there for us in 2015. That alone brings the city together and helps even the novice of fans support the team.

AJ Preller has sure made his presence is known to the Padre fans. Let’s take a closer look at his additions and rank them #1-10 in order of importance or significance to the team. It is difficult to know exactly when a good trade is made by a team. Often it takes years and years before you can get an accurate gauge on who really won a particular trade. 

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With that being said, these rankings offer one writer’s opinion on each off season move. I am usually not one to do predictions, as there are far too many variables in a full major league season to accurately predict numbers. I will, however rank each addition based upon what the Padres gave up to get said player, and whether or not that particular player fits the need of the organization.

Without any doubt, A.J. Preller has made moves to improve this team. Now let’s take a close look at each addition and break down how exactly it helped this franchise out. Part One will run today, the second part of this piece, will be available in a few days. Thank you.

#10

The re-signing of Josh Johnson at one-year-$1 million dollars

Former All-Star Josh Johnson has never lacked in ability, his arm and stuff, is flat out nasty. He has however, had trouble staying healthy in his nine-year career. Johnson’s tenure with the San Diego Padres actually started last season when he was signed November 20, 2013 for the 2014 season at the price of $8 million dollars.

Johnson made three spring starts and yet again succumbed to an elbow injury. It was first reported he had a forearm/elbow strain and would miss 4-6 weeks to begin the 2014 season. On April 23, 2014 it was reported that Johnson would undergo his second career Tommy John surgery. A promising young power pitcher again has his career derailed by injuries.

Josh Johnson had an outstanding 2009 and 2010 season for the Florida Marlins. He totaled 26 wins and had an ERA of 2.70.  He was a two-time All-Star, and only 26-years old.  A series of shoulder, forearm, bicep and elbow injuries stalled his career since. He has tremendous upside, but like many pitchers in the history of the game, just physically could not handle the stress of being a Major League pitcher.

The original offer in 2014 was not on A.J. Preller’s watch. I find it hard to believe he would have guaranteed eight million dollars to Johnson. To essentially give a player with a well known injury history, that much money… left Padre fans up in arms. I can remember thinking, we are on a budget and we throw eight million dollars in that direction. That alone will be my last memory of our previous management. At 1 million for hopefully half a season, it is slightly better, but still a crap shoot. Johnson could be a steal, the potential will always be there. Who knows, stranger things have happened.

#9

The acquisition of Shawn Kelley from the New York Yankees for minor league pitcher Johnny Barbato

Shawn Kelley is hardly a household name, but his value could be immense as the Padres plan on contending this season. Bottom of the bullpen guys are unsung heroes on a team. If they succeed you, hear nothing about them and if they fail, they are simply shipped out of town to Triple-A. He is a strickly fastball-slider guy, with average to slightly above average stuff. His strikeout (over 1 per inning) and fly ball tendencies translate well to spacious Petco Park.

With potential deals still in the works, Kelley could easily vault himself into a 7th inning role with the team. He owns a 3.94 career ERA in 233 innings at the Major League level, while striking out 260. The Padre bullpen is a strength on the team, and I can easily see a team looking for the likes of Kevin Quackenbush and Dale Thayer. If one of them is moved, Kelley will be a valuable pitcher in the bullpen.

The 30-year old Kelley is in a walk year, and is sure to put in a quality effort to remain in the big leagues for years to come. The price tag for Shawn Kelley was minor league pitcher Johnny Barbato. The 22-year old Barbato pitched last year in Double-A San Antonio. He was 2-2 with a 2.87 ERA in 31 innings pitched. The 6th round selection (2010) out of Felix Varela High School in Miami, Florida was simply buried by a wealthy Padres’ minor league farm system. He could eventually pay dividends for the Yankees, but the Padres are looking for returns now.

#7

The free agent acquisition of Brandon Morrow at one-year, $2.5 million dollars

This deal could be #1 on this list…at the end of the season. Morrow has that type of potential. In the same mold of the aforementioned Josh Johnson, Morrow has tremendous upside, but has struggled to remain healthy. The former #1 pick for the Seattle Mariners (2006), at times can be flat out dominant. Yet he has failed to throw over 179.1 innings in a season.

The flashes of dominance from Morrow are so stunning, that indeed the Padres took a chance on him. He lost all of last season due to a torn tendon sheath in his right hand. Before that it was an entrapped radial nerve in his right forearm in 2013. After dominating the first 2 1/2 months of the 2012 season, he strained an oblique muscle and missed the rest of the year.

Brandon Morrow‘s stuff is filthy. He has a hard four-seem fastball that sits between 92-97 mph, and has been clocked up to 100 mph before. Team that with the ability to throw three different off-speed pitches (curveball, slider, change-up) and you have a pitcher with ace-quality stuff. The injuries will always be against him, but you would have to think he is due for some good luck.

Another interesting thing about Morrow, is he could easily transition into the bullpen. His stuff is overpowering and (in my eyes) a move to closer or setup man, might be the key to keeping him healthy. With the Padres strength being their bullpen and rotation, I can easily see Brandon Morrow throwing out of the bullpen in 2015. A.J. Preller thinks out of the box, and if it means moving Joaquin Benoit for a starting shortstop…. then by all means.

#6

The acquisition of Will Middlebrooks from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for Ryan Hanigan

In the spring and summer of 2012, Will Middlebrooks was on top of the world. In Boston that year, playing for the Red Sox, Middlebrooks hit 15 home runs and had a .288 batting average in half the season. His season ended prematurely when he broke his hand after being hit by a pitch against the Cleveland Indians on August 10th.

His emergence in 2012 led to Kevin Youkilis being traded. Middlebrooks was deemed the obvious heir apparent and the fan favorite Youkilis was ushered out of town. I don’t know if the pressure of taking over the hot corner from Youkilis led to his decline, but Middlebrooks never looked the same.

He started off the 2013 season with a 3-homer game against the Toronto Blue Jays in April, but quickly fell into a slump. Finishing the season with a .227/.271/.425 stat line (348 at-bats). He hit 17 home runs and drove in 49 runs, while winning a World Series title with the Red Sox. Last year he regressed even more with a .191/.256/.265 injury-plagued year where he was shuttled up and down between Triple-A and the Red Sox.

The cost on Middlebrooks was minimal to say the least. Ryan Hanigan was just acquired in the Wil Myers blockbuster deal, and he was nothing more than a costly back up catcher. At a price tag of $540,000 for this upcoming season, he is a definite bargain. Perhaps he can capture that thunder in the bat that the Padres have been lacking at third base for years.

The more you look at this deal, the more you see what a great deal it was for the Padres. Hanigan was due a whopping $7.2 million dollars for two more years. That, for a backup catcher, is very steep. Middlebrooks is 26-years old, and could blossom playing for a smaller market team. Even if Middlebrooks doesn’t make the team or fails to produce, the fact A.J. Preller dumped that Hanigan contract makes this is a fantastic deal. With the recent addition of Wil Nieves, the Padres already filled the hole left by the trade of Hanigan. Look for #5 thru #1 of this list in the next few days.