Padres Hope to Follow Royals Blueprint

Mr. Royal.

Royals Background

The hiring of AJ Preller in San Diego has created a reasonable amount of buzz for the team to see what tricks he can pull to get the Padres into the postseason sooner than later for the first time since 2006. Similarly, when Dayton Moore was hired to helm the Kansas City Royals he came with expectations for the first Royals postseason since 1985. This year he accomplished that feat, and now the Royals are facing off with the Baltimore Orioles for the championship of the American League. That Dayton Moore hiring by the way? June 2006. 8 years ago…

The Royals were a bit of a dynasty in the late 70’s and early 1980’s. They won the World Series in 1985, lost it in 1980, lost in the ALCS in ’84, ’76-’78, and lost the LDS in ’81.

One thing to keep in the mind is that when Moore took over the team had been doing really bad. They had lost 100 games 4 of the past 5 seasons, but have not done so since Moore took over except 2006.

Now of course there are different pieces with different teams, but it bears doing a quick check on the Royals to see how they got to where they are and what role Mr. Moore played in bringing them there. While there are many factors that go into something like this, I will take a quick look at the Royals starting rotation, key bullpen pitchers, and starting 9 to analyze how they got there and perhaps give a glimpse of the time frame we could be looking at for the Padres.

The Royals infield is a lot of draft picks and the right trades. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Position Players and How They Got Here

Infield

C – Salvador Perez: Signed as an amateur free agent by the Royals in 2006, Perez also reached the majors in 2011 as a 21 year old. He has a career .285 BA and this year set career highs in home runs (17) and games played(150).

1B – Eric Hosmer: Hosmer has also flashed signs of being a bonafide superstar, even looking like Braves All Star first baseman Freddie Freeman. In 2013 he slugged 17 homers after being a Royals 1st round draft pick in 2008. He debuted for the Royals in 2011 and 3rd in Rookie of the Year voting.

2B – Omar Infante – A super-utility player who has moved around quite a bit, he signed as a free agent in the off-season through 2017. He provides solid defense and offense, and his ability to play anywhere on the field also gives the organization flexibility with other prospects and injuries that come up.

SS – Alcides Escobar – Originally signed by the Brewers as a free agent in 2003, Escobar debuted at the Bigs in 2008 but came to the Royals in 2011 at the age of 24 after a couple of disappointing seasons. He has been given the full-time shortstop job and responded by hitting .284 this season and playing great defense. He also has 114 stolen bases in his 4 years with the Royals. Speed. Defense. See the vision being stuck to and realized?

3B – Mike Moustakas: A Royals #1 draft pick in 2007, Moustakas still hasn’t solidified himself, as just this year he was sent to AAA before coming back and only hitting .212 on the year. However, his walk-off game 2 homer against the Angels made everything else that happend this season not matter much. He debuted as well in 2011, and will he blossom late like Gordon and be sent packing soon? More post-season heroics will help his case, but he needs to improve on his career BA .236. He did smack 15 HR this season and 20 in 2012.

The Royals Getting to the Playoffs was Not Overnight. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Outfield

LF – Alex Gordon: The 2006 Baseball America top prospect was nearly a bust. A first round draft pick in 2005(pre-Moore) by the Royals, he came up back in 2007 and only hit .247…However, the Royals stuck with him and put him in left field. Now he is a two time All-Star, three (likely four) Time Gold Glover, and the centerpiece of the Royals rebuild. The credit goes to Moore here for sticking with him to see him through.

CF – Jarrod Dyson/Lorenzo Cain– Dyson was a Royals 50th round pick in 2006, he debuted in 2010 but posted career highs in games played with 120 and stolen bases this year swiping 36. He has passed 30 each of the past three seasons. Lorenzo Cain was a Brewers draft pick and part of the Zack Greinke trade that also brought Escobar over to the Royals. He hit .301 this year with a career high 28 stolen bases and showed off HIS defense in the playoffs nightly.

RF – Nori Aoki – Aoki had several good years in Japanese baseball before being signed to the Brewers in 2012. He was traded in the off-season for Will Smith, a pitcher for the Royals they were willing to give up after the James Shields trade. 2014 was his first year with the team. He showed off his defense this season as well, and hit .285 with a .349 OBP.

DH – Billy Butler – A #1 2004 draft pick by the…you guessed it, the Royals! He debuted in 2007 but had his best year in 2012 hitting 29 Home Runs with 107 RBI and making the All-Star Game. He is a .295 career hitter.

Padres hoping to nurture draft picks into All-Stars. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Conclusion

So…what does this tell us about the Padres future? First of all, the core of this team position-wise has been around since 2011 or so. The trade before 2013 was the big one – both in changing the attitude of the clubhouse with Rays post-season hero Shields – and expectations of the fans. Kansas City hosted the All Star Game in 2013 and was in contention at the time before falling off, ending 2013 with a record of (86-76 and 7 GB of Detroit) but their first winning record since 2003.

So for the starters, we have 6 of the 10 (counting platoon and DH) that were drafted by the Royals. Two were acquired in a trade for a homegrown pitcher in Zack Greinke. The final two were also trades.

For the rotation, only two were homegrown prospects. One was a blockbuster trade in Shields, and Guthrie was essentially buying low and watching a picture peak at the right time. The bullpen is homegrown with a nasty set-up man in the same Wil Myers trade. Not bad at all.

For the pitching staff the Padres seem pretty set. Jedd Gyorko might be the diamond keystone they need at 2B. Seth Smith might be good enough to anchor an outfield spot, and the hope is that Rymer Liriano can do the same? Beyond that, the Padres have some talent building to do. Hopefully Tommy Medica matures into an Eric Hosmer, with the verdict looking worse every day waiting for Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal to bear the trading of Mat Latos a good one. Of course Hunter Renfroe might be ready sooner than later, not to mention 2014 first round draft pick Trea Turner at shortstop.

Dayton Moore emphasizes “the process”, focusing on speed, defense and pitching in spacious Kauffman Stadium. Hopefully Preller takes note and builds a similar team, not getting homer-happy in a stadium that has proven that’s just not the way.

All this to say when looking at the facts of how the Royals build their team with a similar payroll and how long it took, it’s realistic to think that the Padres may not realistically see pay-dirt until they develop a few more position players, and it will probably take a gutsy trade to work to accelerate and finalize the process. As I pointed out earlier, they are in a better starting point than the Royals were, but it does take patience and some luck that the patience will bear itself out.

My bet would be 2017 is the earliest we will see dividends on anything Preller does. Will the ownership have that kind of patience to see the fruits of his labor will be a whole other question.