Padres Hope to Follow Royals Blueprint

Mr. Royal.

Royals Background

The hiring of AJ Preller in San Diego has created a reasonable amount of buzz for the team to see what tricks he can pull to get the Padres into the postseason sooner than later for the first time since 2006. Similarly, when Dayton Moore was hired to helm the Kansas City Royals he came with expectations for the first Royals postseason since 1985. This year he accomplished that feat, and now the Royals are facing off with the Baltimore Orioles for the championship of the American League. That Dayton Moore hiring by the way? June 2006. 8 years ago…

The Royals were a bit of a dynasty in the late 70’s and early 1980’s. They won the World Series in 1985, lost it in 1980, lost in the ALCS in ’84, ’76-’78, and lost the LDS in ’81.

One thing to keep in the mind is that when Moore took over the team had been doing really bad. They had lost 100 games 4 of the past 5 seasons, but have not done so since Moore took over except 2006.

Now of course there are different pieces with different teams, but it bears doing a quick check on the Royals to see how they got to where they are and what role Mr. Moore played in bringing them there. While there are many factors that go into something like this, I will take a quick look at the Royals starting rotation, key bullpen pitchers, and starting 9 to analyze how they got there and perhaps give a glimpse of the time frame we could be looking at for the Padres.

The Royals Getting to the Playoffs was Not Overnight. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Outfield

LF – Alex Gordon: The 2006 Baseball America top prospect was nearly a bust. A first round draft pick in 2005(pre-Moore) by the Royals, he came up back in 2007 and only hit .247…However, the Royals stuck with him and put him in left field. Now he is a two time All-Star, three (likely four) Time Gold Glover, and the centerpiece of the Royals rebuild. The credit goes to Moore here for sticking with him to see him through.

CF – Jarrod Dyson/Lorenzo Cain– Dyson was a Royals 50th round pick in 2006, he debuted in 2010 but posted career highs in games played with 120 and stolen bases this year swiping 36. He has passed 30 each of the past three seasons. Lorenzo Cain was a Brewers draft pick and part of the Zack Greinke trade that also brought Escobar over to the Royals. He hit .301 this year with a career high 28 stolen bases and showed off HIS defense in the playoffs nightly.

RF – Nori Aoki – Aoki had several good years in Japanese baseball before being signed to the Brewers in 2012. He was traded in the off-season for Will Smith, a pitcher for the Royals they were willing to give up after the James Shields trade. 2014 was his first year with the team. He showed off his defense this season as well, and hit .285 with a .349 OBP.

DH – Billy Butler – A #1 2004 draft pick by the…you guessed it, the Royals! He debuted in 2007 but had his best year in 2012 hitting 29 Home Runs with 107 RBI and making the All-Star Game. He is a .295 career hitter.

Big Games James has been able to match on-field performance with off-field talk and swagger. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Rotation

James Shields– Please can we stop this “Big Game James” stuff? BUT, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays 16th round pick in 2000, he was the BIG gamble that would make or break Moore’s job. He was acquired with Wade Davis for top prospect and eventual 2013 Rookie of the Year Wil Myers. He’s answered the call, going 28-18 in his two years in KC and providing a staff presence this team hasn’t had since Kevin Appier.

Jason Vargas – Acquired in a trade with the Angels in the off season after coming up with the Marlins and Mariners. He is signed through 2017 and gave the Royals 187 IP and going 11-10.

Yordano Ventura – Signed as an international free agent by the Royals in 2008, he was a sensation this season going 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA as a rookie. He also made headlines by throwing 103 MPH. His cutter comes in around 98 MPH.

Danny Duffy – Seriously his name. He was drafted by the Royals in 2007 and struggled his rookie year in 2011. Fighting through injuries, he spent most of 2013 in the minors before re-emerging this season in the majors. He went 9-12 but with a 2.53 ERA in 25 starts and 6 relief appearances. He likely is the odd man out of the playoff rotation, but could be valuable in relief.

Jeremy Guthrie – The old guy at 35 on the staff, Guthrie was drafted by the Indians in the first round back in 2002. He was traded to the Royals in 2012 for Jonathan Sanchez who didn’t work out well for the Royals. In 2013 he posted his first winning record since a 7-5 record as a rookie finishing 15-12. This year he finished 13-11 and surpassed 200 innings for the second straight season.

Bullpen:
CL – Greg Holland – Drafted by the Royals in 2007 with the 10th round pick, he debuted in 2010 but only pitched in 15 games. In 2013 he became the full time closer and has not looked back. 47 saves in 2013, 46 this year with 90 strikeouts in 62.1 innings and a 1.44 ERA.

Setup – Wade Davis – Part of the Shields/Myers trade Davis had been a starter with the Rays but settled in as a dominant 8th inning setup man for the Royals. This year he posted a 1.00 ERA, a 9-1 record, and struck out 109 in 72 innings.

*Wild Card: Brandon Finnegan: Played in the College World Series in June with TCU and now is lights out in the bullpen for the Royals, pitching several early high leverage games against Oakland and the Angels in the 2014 playoffs.

Padres hoping to nurture draft picks into All-Stars. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Conclusion

So…what does this tell us about the Padres future? First of all, the core of this team position-wise has been around since 2011 or so. The trade before 2013 was the big one – both in changing the attitude of the clubhouse with Rays post-season hero Shields – and expectations of the fans. Kansas City hosted the All Star Game in 2013 and was in contention at the time before falling off, ending 2013 with a record of (86-76 and 7 GB of Detroit) but their first winning record since 2003.

So for the starters, we have 6 of the 10 (counting platoon and DH) that were drafted by the Royals. Two were acquired in a trade for a homegrown pitcher in Zack Greinke. The final two were also trades.

For the rotation, only two were homegrown prospects. One was a blockbuster trade in Shields, and Guthrie was essentially buying low and watching a picture peak at the right time. The bullpen is homegrown with a nasty set-up man in the same Wil Myers trade. Not bad at all.

For the pitching staff the Padres seem pretty set. Jedd Gyorko might be the diamond keystone they need at 2B. Seth Smith might be good enough to anchor an outfield spot, and the hope is that Rymer Liriano can do the same? Beyond that, the Padres have some talent building to do. Hopefully Tommy Medica matures into an Eric Hosmer, with the verdict looking worse every day waiting for Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal to bear the trading of Mat Latos a good one. Of course Hunter Renfroe might be ready sooner than later, not to mention 2014 first round draft pick Trea Turner at shortstop.

Dayton Moore emphasizes “the process”, focusing on speed, defense and pitching in spacious Kauffman Stadium. Hopefully Preller takes note and builds a similar team, not getting homer-happy in a stadium that has proven that’s just not the way.

All this to say when looking at the facts of how the Royals build their team with a similar payroll and how long it took, it’s realistic to think that the Padres may not realistically see pay-dirt until they develop a few more position players, and it will probably take a gutsy trade to work to accelerate and finalize the process. As I pointed out earlier, they are in a better starting point than the Royals were, but it does take patience and some luck that the patience will bear itself out.

My bet would be 2017 is the earliest we will see dividends on anything Preller does. Will the ownership have that kind of patience to see the fruits of his labor will be a whole other question.