San Diego Padres Week In Preview

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Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Introduction

Three wins. Three wins will give the Padres a better record than what they did in 2012 and 2013. A chance to prove that they are improving. That they can improve. That finally having Tyson Ross step up as an ace all season long made a difference, and that with him, Andrew Cashner, and Jesse Hahn together might really make a big difference. The Padres have three games against the Rockies this week to close out their year at Petco Park, they finish off the year with 4 at San Francisco against the team they just swept. The Giants are liable to be fighting for their playoff lives at that time, as with the sweep it dropped them into a tie for the wild card with the Pirates, with the Brewers hanging on 4.5 games back. Yet if the Giants struggle at all early this week, this weekend could really matter for them and they would break their “every other year we are good” streak they have had the last several seasons. 2015 promises to be an exciting year, with a new general manager and the second season of the new ownership group, which has shown no trepidation making big changes. Most likely Bud Black will not be the new manager next year, which gives another reason to watch the Padres off-season moves with interest: right here at Friars On Base. In this final Week Ahead of the 2014 season, I will analyze the upcoming matchups, with some predictions of my own on how the playoff field will shake up, and close it up with my final Padre Player to Watch.

Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Rockies Preview

The 2014 Colorado Rockies can be summed up by one word: Pitching. I’ve said it before, but if you could combine the Padres pitching with the Rockies offense, that team might just win the NL West. Unfortunately for the Rockies, their pitching has pitched atrociously this year, leading to them battling it out with Arizona for last place in the NL West and over 20 games under .500. They come into this series having won 6 straight however, after losing the previous 4 before that.

Charlie Blackmon has had a good season, as well as Corey Dickerson and Justin Morneau in a renaiisance season battling it out for the NL Batting Title. Eric Stults goes to the mount for the Padres in game 1, with Robbie Erlin in Game 2 as Tyson Ross sits out the last couple week with elbow soreness. Not good – but smart of the Padres to rest him rather than risk any injury at the end of a lost season. Hopefully Stults can finish out the year and not add to his NL leading losses. For Erlin it’s important to build off his last start and show continue his arm rehab to go into the off-season with positive momentum.

Petco Park turned 10 years old this season, and still has just the 2 division titles in 2005 and 2006 to show for it. A good run 2007 and 2010, but nothing much since. It was a sad year for the Padres, losing Jerry Coleman in the off season and then of course number 19 Tony Gwynn as well. Time to turn the page into the second decade and see more winning than losing this time. The Padres try to close out their final homestand with the Rockies strong.

Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Giants Preview

The Padres will likely not face Tim Lincecum again this season. That is a good thing, since he has no-hit them twice in two years. No, now The Freak is in the bullpen for the Giants as they try to finish out a season and make the playoffs. If they just get in, anything can happen, or so the story goes.

The Giants bats are going cold at just about the worst time possible. Season long contributors like Michael Morse are banged up, Brandon Belt had a hot April but then injury and poor play have him hitting under .230, and even perennial MVP Candidate Buster Posey has not been able to carry this team to the NL West crown. Make no mistake – the Dodgers earned their division title (coming any day now), but they did under-achieve where they should’ve been with that talent. The title easily could’ve been the Giants to take with more consistent output.

Tim Hudson might be in his final year in the majors. He started out the season well, but has struggled of late. He is a competitor though, and I wouldn’t count him out if the Giants have one pitcher on their team not named Bumgardener who can pull out a signature victory when they need it most. Watch out for him this week. Matt Cain has struggled all season to prove to people that he is back from a dismal 2013 campaign, and Ryan Vogelsong, while making a nice comeback story after years of being lost in baseball purgatory, also appears to be at the end of his run. Despite a playoff run approaching, the Giants face some serious rotation questions themselves heading into 2015.

Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Pennant Races

The final week of the regular season is here, and by this time next week we will know who is in and who is out. How will it all shake out? Here is my take:

NL East: The Nationals currently hold a 2 game lead on the best record in baseball and ran away with an NL East that was expected to be close. Instead the Braves choked in September, falling under .500 even and tied with the Mets for second place. The Mets.

NL Central: This is the one with some intrigue left. The Pirates have a chance still just 2.5 games behind, but have won 7 of their last 10 games to stay on top. Milwaukee faded badly down the stretch and though leading much of the year will miss out on the playoffs once again this season.

NL West: The Dodgers have this all but wrapped up, thanks to taking 2 of 3 from the Giants two weeks ago. Their magic number stands at 3 and should be wrapped up mid-week, just getting their formidable playoff rotation set.

Wild Card: Right now it is all but wrapped up here, though the Pirates battling for the NL Central is quite interesting. Should be Pirates/Cardinals and the Giants, with Milwaukee 4.5 back from a WC berth.

This second wild card has been around for a couple of seasons now, and I for one am really in favor of it. Talk about making a difference in fighting for that division crown! I would love it if the Cards and Giants battled it out in the one-game playoff, as we would then have the two teams that have taken turns representing the National League in the World Series since 2009.

AL West: Angels look like World Series contenders. Any team with Albert Pujols and Mike Trout should be.

AL Central: Again, some intrigue here with the Royals only 1.5 games back from the lead, but the Royals blew a golden opportunity over the weekend, only winning 1 of 3 against the Tigers up top.

AL East: All locked up by Baltimore. Love it.

AL Wild Card: The A’s went into a free fall as well, but with their pitching of Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija might be able to make some noise if they win the 1 game playoff. The Royals are currently in the 2nd spot with the pesky Mariners only 1.5 behind that second spot. The Indians are 3.5 back and the Yankees are 4.5 back but don’t stand a realistic shot. Again, I’m hoping the Royals overtake the Tigers for the AL Central, leaving the Tigers and A’s to duke it out in the one game playoff. Lester v Max Scherzer should be must-see TV.

Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Padres Predictions

At this point, there isn’t much else to say about the 2014 campaign coming to a close. The Padres had a much stronger second half than first, but the first half cannot be erased from the record books or forgotten about. This team still has a ton of questions around its offense, and many starters could be facing some big questions about where they fit next season. I’m not sure the Padres can afford to put up with Carlos Quentin‘s absentee routine again, but who else will take him? Hopefully someone in the AL can pony up some for his salary. Yonder Alonso had another disappointing season, and the emergence of Tommy Medica seems to make him expendable. While Rene Rivera had a great year at catcher for him, is that the best the Padres can do behind the dish? Certainly Yasmani Grandal faces more questions about his future than answers provided this year.

Padres Week Ahead: Finish Strong!

Schedule