Padres Series Preview vs. Milwaukee

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Apr 22, 2014; Milwaukee, WI, USA; San Diego Padres first baseman Yonder Alonso (23) slides safely into second base after hitting a double as Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Scooter Gennett (2) applies the tag during the fifth inning at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The Padres (60-69) head home after a rough road trip to face the first-place Milwaukee Brewers (72-58). These two teams faced off in late April and the Brewers took the series two games to one. The Brewers just lost a series with the Pirates at home. They have come a bit more down to earth in the second half, with a 19-15 record.

The Brewers are getting healthy. They are still without Matt Garza, who has not started since August 3rd with a strained rib cage. Milwaukee has a 1.5 game advantage in the National League Central, just ahead of the Cardinals. The last time the Brewers visited Petco Park, they won the series.

The Padres are a bit banged up. Everth Cabrera is still on the shelf with a nagging hamstring injury. Jedd Gyorko also has a sore hamstring but that should not prevent him from playing in this series. The Padres are 34-27 at home, 23 games better than on the road. This series will be a challenge the Padres need to springboard themselves into the last month of the season.

Aug 20, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Eric Stults (53) throws in the 2nd inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Eric Stults (6-13, 4.53 ERA) looks to continue his hot month (3-0, 1.46 ERA) against Kyle Lohse (11-7, 3.49 ERA). Stults has not lost all month and has really turned it around. Stults has never started against the Brewers but he has appeared in 2 games, pitching 4 innings and allowing 4 runs. He has been significantly better at home this year, with a 3.98 ERA compared to a 4.91 road ERA.

Lohse has not won sine July 23rd. He has had 12 starts against the Padres in his career, going 6-4 with a 4.00 ERA. He started against the Padres earlier this year at Miller Park, going 7 innings, striking out 5 and allowing one earned run and getting the win.

The Brewers have plenty of offensive weapons, starting with Carlos Gomez. He is hitting .285 with 21 HRs and 64 RBI and is having a 20/20 season with 27 stolen bases. The two-time All-Star has 22 hits in 27 games against the Padres.

Jul 19, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Tyson Ross (38) pitches during the first inning against the New York Mets at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The All-Star Tyson Ross (11-12, 2.68 ERA) makes his 28th start of the year. He will start against rookie Jimmy Nelson (2-4, 4.15 ERA). Ross struck out 8 in his last start, pitching 8 innings and only allowing 2 runs and he ended up getting tagged with the loss. He pitched against the Brewers earlier this year, getting the loss. He pitched 6 innings and allowed 5 runs and he also surrendered 2 home runs.

Nelson has only made 9 starts in his major league career. He got knocked around in his last start, allowing 4 runs on 9 hits in 5.2 innings. He has never faced the Padres in his career. He has actually performed better on the road this year, with a 1.45 ERA.

Khris Davis has been a pleasant surprise for the Brewers this year, hitting 20 HRs and driving in 64 runs with 33 doubles. He has two home runs and a double in 10 at-bats.

Aug 1, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; Milwaukee Brewers right fielder Ryan Braun (8) hits a one run double off of St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (not pictured) during the fifth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Odrisamer Despaigne (3-5, 3.44 ERA) looks to turn things around against veteran Yovanni Gallardo (8-7, 3.38 ERA). Despaigne has allowed 8 earned runs in his last 2 starts. Since the All-Star break, his ERA is 4.89. He has been impressive at home, with a 2.45 ERA in 5 starts.

Gallardo lost his last start to the Pirates, allowing 3 runs in 5 innings. He has 9 career starts against San Diego, with a 4-3 record with a 4.53 ERA. He pitched against them earlier this year, throwing 7 innings and only allowing one run and getting the no-decision.

Ryan Braun is always a threat for the Brewers. He is hitting .278 with 16 HRs and a team-leading 73 RBI. He hasn’t shown the incredible power he had before his suspension because of the association with Biogenesis. He has been a Padres masher. He is hitting .309 in 44 career games, with 10 home runs and 32 RBI. Aramis Ramirez is another veteran bat the Brewers have. He is hitting .303 with 58 RBI.

Aug 10, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; San Diego Padres catcher Rene Rivera (44) and relief pitcher Tim Stauffer (right) celebrate after defeating the Pittsburgh Pirates 8-2 at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Padres have a good opportunity to beat a first-place team at home. The Padres have been successful against NL Central teams this year, with a 16-13 record. Milwaukee has a 19-7 record against the National League West. This series can go either way. The Padres offense somewhat came back down to earth during the Diamondbacks series.

The Friars have their work cut out for them. The Brewers have a .255 team batting average and are 2nd in the National League in runs scored and home runs. Jonathan Lucroy is still in contention for the batting title, with a .304 average. He has easily been the best hitting catcher of the year.

My prediction is that the Padres will struggle against a good pitcher in Lohse and Stults will have a hard time duplicating the success he has had all month, and the Padres will fall in the opener. Then Tyson Ross will redeem the Friars in Game 2 and the Padres offense will take advantage of a young pitcher in Nelson. The rubber match can go either way but I am giving the edge to the Brewers because of Gallardo’s veteran presence and Despaigne has struggled of late. But the Padres have surprised us before, there is no reason they cannot do it again.

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