Series Preview: Padres Head to St. Louis

Jun 20, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; A general view of Busch Stadium during the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Philadelphia Phillies. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

Series Preview

The Padres (57-62) take their hot streak back to the Midwest to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (63-56). The Cardinals are a good team but the Padres have been giving them trouble. The Friars won the series at Petco Park late last month, outscoring the Cardinals 17-8 in the 3 games. The Padres have been giving the National League Central teams fits all year. The Padres are 15-10 against NL Central teams this year and they have won at least one series against each team in that division.

The Cardinals are in 3^rd place in the NL Central and just 2 games behind the Brewers. That division is getting crowded at the top. If the season ended today, the Cardinals would be playing in the Wild Card Game against the Pirates. They have stumbled a bit coming out of the gate for the second half with an 11-12 record. The Red Birds made some big waves at the trade deadline making up for some injuries they have suffered this year. Yadier Molina, Jaime Garcia and Michael Wacha are all out for an extended period of time. The Cardinals added John Lackey and Justin Masterson to the rotation at the trade deadline.

Aug 9, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher John Lackey (41) pitches in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

Game 1

Game 1 will feature one of those new additions for the Cards, John Lackey (12-8, 3.98 ERA). He will pitch against Eric Stults (5-13, 4.76 ERA). Lackey is 1-1 in 2 starts for St. Louis, with an 8.25 ERA in 12 innings. The Orioles knocked him around for 9 earned runs his last time out. However, his first start for his new team was impressive as he pitched 7 innings and allowed only 2 runs. He has 2 starts against San Diego in his career, as he has spent most of his career in the American League. In those 2 starts, he is 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA with 10 strikeouts in 11.1 innings. Lackey has pitched better at home this year, combining his numbers with the Red Sox and Cardinals he is 6-3 at home with a 3.16 ERA.

Stults has only allowed 1 run in his last two starts, and he has struck out 9 in that span of 12.2 innings. He has lowered his ERA significantly lately. Stults’ numbers against the Cardinals are identical to Lackey’s against the Padres, 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA in 2 starts. Stults has struggled on the road this year, going 1-9 with a 5.37 ERA in 13 starts. He has also allowed 14 home runs on the road.

Aug 10, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Tyson Ross (38) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the second inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Game 2

Game 2 features two good young pitchers in All-Star Tyson Ross (11-10, 2.63 ERA) and Lance Lynn (12-8, 2.97 ERA). Ross leads the Padres with 11 wins. He has 10 strikeouts with 4 earned runs in 12 innings in his last 2 starts. He has not lost since July 13^th. He pitched against the Cardinals on July 29^th and got the win by pitching 6 innings, striking out 7 and only allowing 1 run. Ross has a decent line on the road this year, going 5-5 with a 3.48 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 72 innings.

Lynn has had 3 starts against the Padres in his career. He is 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA in 17 innings. He has been impressive at home this year with a 7-3 record and 2.60 ERA. In 13 starts at Busch Stadium this year, he has only allowed one home run. He also has a 2.32 ERA since the All-Star break.

With Molina on the shelf, the Cardinals look to Matt Adams and Matt Holliday to get runs off of Ross. Adams is hitting .302 with 12 HRs and 52 RBI, Holliday also has 12 HRs and 59 RBI. They do not hit many home runs, in fact, the Padres have hit more home runs this year than St. Louis.

Aug 6, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Odrisamer Despaigne (40) pitches in the fourth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Game 4/Prediction

The finale of the series looks to be a dandy as the Padres throw their Cuban rookie Odrisamer Despaigne (3-3, 2.72 ERA) against ace Adam Wainwright (14-7, 2.34). Wainwright started the All-Star Game for the National League this year and for good reason as he had a 1.83 ERA in the first half. He did not pitch against the Padres last month but he has dominated the Padres throughout his career. In 7 starts he has a 1.47 ERA against San Diego.

Despaigne dominated in his last start, striking out 8 in 7 innings and earning the victory. He did, however, get knocked around in his last start against the Cardinals. He allowed 6 runs on 9 hits in 5.2 innings. The key to a series win for the Padres is subduing the Cardinals bats. They have good pitching so if they score enough runs, the game might be out of reach for the Friars. The Padres have a rejuvenated offense but the Cardinals have a talented rotation. Something has to give in this weekend’s 4-game series.

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My prediction is a series split. The Padres are facing some good veteran pitching in Lackey and Wainwright. Those two games will be tough to win. I do foresee the Padres taking advantage of young guns Lynn and Miller as the Padres have hit much better since the break. This depends on if Yangervis Solarte can be healthy enough to play in the series and produce like he has since arriving from New York.