Morning Coffee with Mark Whelan: What happens to Hahn and Despaigne when Cashner Returns?

Jun 18, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Andrew Cashner (34) pitches during the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

What will the Padres do with Jesse Hahn and Odrisamer Despaigne when Andrew Cashner returns?

The Padres have an abundance of arms. We know this. Pitching has been the team’s strength all year. Right now, their rotation goes Ian Kennedy, Tyson Ross, Eric Stults, Hahn and Despaigne. Who comes out of the rotation when Cash gets back from his shoulder injury?

First of all, the Padres don’t seem to be rushing Cashner back. In his first stint on the DL this year, he spent about three weeks on the shelf. This time, it’s already been 23 days, and there’s been no expected return date reported. Is it possible they’re keeping Cash on the DL a bit longer to showcase the other pitchers and increase their trade value? Maybe, but that’s just conjecture. Let’s take a look at what the current starters have done.

Jul 7, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Ian Kennedy (22) prepares to deliver in the fourth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Ian Kennedy – He’s been a little inconsistent this season, allowing four or five runs in 6 of his 19 starts, but also holding the opposition to one run in 8 starts. Overall, his ERA is 3.71, which is about 0.30 below his career norm. He’s getting a ton of swings and misses, and his K/9 of 9.7 is the highest of his career. But he’s also kind of hittable, allowing 111 hits in 116.1 innings. He’s a good bet for six innings, as he’s only failed to go that far 4 times, but he also hasn’t thrown more than 7 innings all year. So you have a pretty good idea of what you’re going to get from Kennedy. That makes him very tradable, especially to a team looking for a veteran third or fourth starter.

Jul 9, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; San Diego Padres pitcher Eric Stults (53) delivers a pitch during the third inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Eric Stults – OK, I know this is the first guy you thought of when I asked “who comes out of the rotation?” Stults has certainly had more bad starts than anyone else in the rotation, but he’s allowed a total of only seven runs over his last four starts, for an ERA of 2.59, and he threw a 7-inning, four hit gem against the Giants on the Fourth of July. Stults is experienced enough to not let bad starts stick with him. He goes about his business, works as hard as he can, and has the maturity to bounce back from misfortune. And, as will become more relevant in the next slide, he’ll be able to pitch every fifth day for the Padres for the rest of year, if he stays in the rotation.

June 24, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Jesse Hahn (45) delivers a pitch against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Jesse Hahn – The 24-year old has been one of the most exciting players for fans to watch since his early June call-up, putting up an impressive 2.34 ERA in his first half dozen games. But Hahn has very limited professional experience. He was pitching in A ball last year, and only threw eight games at AA this year before being called up to spot start as an injury replacement. His success has earned him continued starts, and he’s continued to shine, but the issue of an innings limit is going to arise before long.

Hahn threw only 69 innings last year, and 52 the year before. He’s already at 72 this year, and there’s been talk of a 110 inning limit. That might mean only another 6-7 starts, enough to bring us into mid-August. And that’s not even considering the possibility of regression as he becomes better known around the league. Not a lot of pitchers succeed in the majors after only 120 IP in the farm system. Hahn could easily end up back at AA or AAA before the year is up. He’s almost certain not to be in the rotation at the end of the year.

Jul 5, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Odrisamer Despaigne (40) pitches during the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Odrisamer Despaigne – O.D. had his worst outing as a Padre last night, allowing two runs in 7 IP, and losing to Clayton Kershaw 2-1. In other words, he’s been brilliant. In four starts, his ERA is 1.35. His age is listed as 27, and he has eight years of experience as a starter in the Cuban leagues. Despaigne is one of the stars of the International scouting program for the team, and he is a major feather in their cap. While there is bound to be some regression, he has looked pretty unhittable so far. And at 27, he is in the prime of his career, and innings shouldn’t be an issue. He is likely to get some interest from teams looking to make a playoff run, but I suspect it would take a good haul to pry Despaigne away from the Pads.

So who goes when Cashner comes back? That depends. It depends on how hard the team is trying to move Kennedy. It depends whether the team decides Hahn would be better served gaining a bit more minor league experience, and how many innings they think he should pitch. It depends on whether they think Stults will continue to be a serviceable major leaguer.

It will be fun to watch this all unfold over the next few weeks.