I love lists.
I love prospects.
I love lists of prospects.
I super-mega-love lists of Padres prospects.
MLB.com. Baseball Prospectus. Baseball America. Baseball Russia, Baseball Whatever…. any list… just give me my prospects please. PLEASE!
Thats what I love.
However, what do I think of this year’s list of Padres prospects? I’m not too bright. I have no ability to rate these prospects myself. (I recall my thoughts: “Donovan Tate will become Padre-Gold” Is he not quite there yet? Soon, I’m sure.)
OK, I won’t attempt my own prospects list; I’ll do what us math-dorks do. I’ll use the aggregate expert analyses from these guys:
Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com
John Sickels, SB Nation
Matt Eddy, Baseball America
Padres Prospects, Padres Prospects**
Jason Parks, Baseball Prospectus
Keith Law, ESPN.com
**Our friends at PadresProspects.com have not yet released their 2013 preseason prospects list. I have used their list from the end of 2012, but I felt their expertise in Padres players was needed in this sample.
I used the typical “10 points for a first place vote, 9 points for a second place vote, etc” scoring system from these top-ten lists.
T1: Rymer Liriano (49)
T1: Austin Hedges (49)
T3: Max Fried (47)
T3: Jedd Gyorko (47)
5: Casey Kelly (42)
6: Robbie Erlin (21)
7: Matt Wisler (18)
8: Joe Ross (15)
9: Keyvius Sampson (12)
10: Adys Portillo (9)
T11:Joe Wieland (7)
T11: Cory Spangenberg (7)
13: Walker Weickel (3)
T14: Donn Roach (2)
T14: Zack Efflin (2)
MY NOTES AND THOUGHTS:
The first thing I notice is that there is a natural break after Casey Kelly at #5; Gyorko, Liriano, Hedges, Fried, and Kelly are the top 5 Padres prospects. There doesn’t seem to be much debate on this.
Can Spangenberg hit at the upper levels?
I would love to get excited about Fried but, Bush, Carillo, Ramos, Antonelli, Schmidt, Dykstra, Tate, etc…. we’ll see. My point is that every first round pick immediately goes into the Padres top ten and then begins his slow descent.
Parks, Law, and Sickels all list Hedges at their #1 prospect. (I don’t know about you but it’s hard do get excited about a catcher that can block balls in the dirt…. woohoo. that’s thrilling.. yeah.) Parks: “(Hedges) Lacks plus offensive tools; tripped up by off-speed offerings; defense will always be the bread winner.”
Gyorko and Kelly will most likely come off this list when they lose their prospect eligibility this year, but they should make significant contributions to the major league club. Mayo: “(Gyorko’s) quick and compact swing is built for average and power, and he shows an outstanding ability to drive the ball to all fields.”
Liriano is the most intriguing prospect. Massive upside, but his bat only comes alive in June. How can the Padres fix this?
Along with the top 5 above, Keith Law has Joe Ross in his top 100 prospects in all of baseball at #88.
Wisler is coming up fast. Sickels: “19 year old right-hander drafted in seventh round from Ohio high school in 2011 gained 8 MPH on fastball and dominated the Midwest League.”
One expert, PadresProspects.com, had Keyvius Sampson as their #2 prospect last year, but I suspect that he will be several spots lower when they release their new rankings.
Donn Roach is a middling prospect but his bowling ball will play in the major leagues… this year.
Prediction: Sampson and Portillo are eventually going to the bullpen. Too much fastball without a 3rd pitch. You next Joe Ross?