Wins+

Some of the most telling stats are the ones that compare a team or player to the league average.  For example, wRC+ focuses on runs created (with specific weights attached) verse the rest of the league.  OPS+ focuses on a player or teams on-base percentage plus slugging percentage against the rest of the league.  As I often read criticism of the Padres lack of success over the years*, I began to take a closer look at wins and the league average over the years.

*Lee “Hacksaw” Hamilton is the most recent example of someone overlooking some of the lesser success the Padres have had and focusing only on play-off appearances and winning records.  Don’t get me wrong, wins are important.  Wins are why players play, coaches coach, and fans watch.  Hamilton, though, failed to even get his math right, citing six losing seasons in the last nine years.  The Padres have actually had five winning seasons in the last nine years and four losing seasons.  

Rather than go back to 1969 and calculate the average number of wins league-wide, I chose to focus on the years in which the Padres have played in Petco Park.  I calculated the average number of wins across the league (which interestingly enough, when rounded, comes to 81 each year), then calculated the Padres Wins+.  Wins+ here is simply a calculation of the Padres wins season by season as compared to the league average.

Year G W L League Avg Wins+
2011 162 71 91 81 88
2010 162 90 72 81 111
2009 162 75 87 81 93
2008 162 63 99 81 78
2007 163 89 74 81 110
2006 162 88 74 81 109
2005 162 82 80 81 101
2004 162 87 75 81 107
Averages 81 81 99.6250000

If we round the Padres total Wins+ in their time playing at the most pitcher-friendly park in the league, San Diego rates at average.  They have had five above average seasons, and two seasons in which their wins totals were at least 9% better than league average.

Even I was surprised when I looked at the Padres performance in these terms.  Rather than simply saying the Padres have had five winning seasons, we are able to see how they fared against the rest of the league.

Obviously, it’d be easier and much better as a fan to simply calculate the number of times the Padres made the postseason, but we don’t have that luxury.  The Padres have made the postseason five times, and they will surely make the postseason again soon.  Yet, when calculating their success, we can’t simply base it on postseason appearances.  Even wins and losses don’t tell the whole story.

Wins+ is an interesting way to evaluate a team’s performance.  And the Padres have shown they are not as bad off as many may have you believe.  In their time playing at Petco Park, the team is almost exactly average.  Maybe we don’t want to celebrate being average, but average is a far cry from some of the other labels thrown San Diego’s way.  So I’ll take average and hope for something more very soon.

Topics: Padres, Wins

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  • FriarForecast

    Justin, love the work you’re doing here at Chicken Friars.

    The average numbers of wins will always come to 81, since all teams combined have to finish .500 each year.

    However, it’s interesting to see that the Padres have essentially been an average team despite playing over .500 in five of eight years. Their good years haven’t been as good as their bad years have been bad, if that makes sense.

    I think something like wins+ has some potential if things like divisional strength or regular SOS of taking into consideration.

  • ChickenFriars

    @FriarForecast Thank you for explaining the 81 wins average! I was racking my brain trying to figure the math on that, but ultimately just gave up. I think taking SOS into account would be a great addition. While I agree the bad years have been much worse than the good years were good, I think Petco Park allowed the Padres to even be that good. I may go all the way back to ’69, but last night I was too excited about the idea to go that far back. Thanks for the kind words.

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