In between series with the Dodgers, the Padres will host the Florida Marlins for three games from July 30 to August 1. The Marlins enter the series 51-51; the Padres come in an NL-best 60-40. The Marlins will also be somewhat weakened, as they just traded Jorge Cantu away, while the Padres just acquired Miguel Tejada.
Find out how they match up with Florida’s offense after the jump.
The Marlins have a slightly-below-average .320 wOBA as a team, 10th in the NL.
They are below-average against fastballs, curves, sliders, and changeups, only rating above-average against cutters and splitters as a team, and cutters and splitters both are thrown so rarely that data isn’t very reliable there.
They have very little in the way of ability to hit changeups–many of the positives they do have come from small-sample guys like Logan Morrison, Brad Davis, and Mike Stanton, as well as bench players like Brian Barden and Emilio Bonifacio. Cantu also registered well against changeups, but he’s gone. That leaves Cody Ross as the only guy who looks to be too much of a threat against LeBlanc’s great change. Of course, he’ll have to be careful to Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez with his fastball, but neither of them stay back on the change very well, so if he can disrupt their timing with it, LeBlanc should have a good day.
Correia, who had his start pushed back from today to Sunday, will throw next, and the Marlins aren’t particularly well-equipped to handle his five-pitch arsenal. Uggla and Gaby Sanchez, who’s above average against pretty much everything, but only barely above on fastballs, sliders, and cutters, are tough matchups.
But really, facing this lineup, Correia’s toughest matchup is himself. He’s struggled for a few starts now, and really just needs to throw quality strikes. If he does, he’ll have a good day as well.
Finally, there’s Garland, who brings his fastball-heavy repertoire with him. Uggla and Ramirez are the only Florida starters with well-above-average ability against heaters, so he’ll need to mix in some offspeed stuff to them to keep them off balance. Garland’s smart enough to understand, that, though, so he certainly isn’t any more at risk against those two than most, especially given his groundball tendencies.
So that’s that. Against this team, throw quality strikes with whatever pitch you want and you’ll be fine. Just no fat fastballs to Uggla or Ramirez, no hanging offspeed stuff to Sanchez, and be careful to Logan Morrison, I guess (I have no idea what, if anything, he struggles with, as he’s only played three games).