Checking in With the Competition–Arizona Diamondbacks

Before I start, I’d just like to say a couple quick things about this format.

It’s very difficult to condense all the notable or semi-notable young talent into one article, so I have to be very brief with each player, much like the Lineouts sections in Baseball Prospectus annuals. These descriptions thus have to be pretty short, and can sound pretty dismissive at times. Of course, there are always intricacies to players, and one sentence or so might not do those justice, but I’m going for conciseness. If you want to know more about any particular player, don’t hesitate to ask.

I’ll be going through the Arizona system by position groups (catcher, corner infield, middle infield, outfield, starting pitching, relief pitching), first looking at individual players, then doing a depth summary, then comparing the team to the Padres.

Veteran players who have a fairly high probability of not being with the team for many more years are exempt from this. No Adam LaRoche. No Chad Qualls. No Kris Benson. No Augie Ojeda. No Chris Snyder. Older players will be considered if they either a) have little service time, and are thus under team control for a while, or b) are the sort of player that tends to get an extension (like Dan Haren).

OK, that should cover the format. Here goes…

CATCHER

26-year-old Miguel Montero, fresh off a .294/.355/.478 year, is the D’backs catcher of the present and future.

John Hester and Konrad Schmidt are two minor league veteran depth backstops of the occasional-homer-but-not-much-else-on-offense variety, and neither are defensive savants.

Rossmel Perez has a bit more upside as a good defender with contact and discipline skills, but he brings absolutely no power to the table. He could be a Mike Redmond sort of player.

SUMMARY: If Montero goes down, the Diamondbacks don’t really have anyone particularly impressive to replace him, but assuming he stays healthy and productive, Arizona is set here.

COMPARED TO THE PADRES: Montero is better than any catcher the Padres have, but the Padres have more depth at the position. I’d give Arizona the advantage by a little.

CORNER INFIELD

Mark Reynolds is a very good player, although none of the current Diamondbacks really scream “effective first baseman for the next several years,” so they’re 1-for-2.

Brandon Allen could fill that role, but he struggled badly in the majors last year and hasn’t hit particularly well in Triple-A this year.

At 31, Jeff Bailey isn’t technically a “young” player, but he’s bashed at Triple-A for years, and has plenty of service time, so he’d be under team control for a while. He could be a decent stopgap 1B or platoon player for the next two or three years.

Bryan Byrne has some doubles power and on-base skills, but the 26-year-old flopped in a 35-game Triple-A trial last year (.133/.283/.184), so I doubt he ever gets a look.

Three interesting names reside in High-A: third baseman Kyle Greene and first basemen Ryan Wheeler and Paul Goldschmidt. Greene had a horrible year last year but has made shocking gains on repeating High-A, batting .319/.473/.468 with an 18/18 K/BB ratio. He’s still old for the level at nearly 24. Wheeler is an all-around solid hitter, while Goldschmidt is more of a brute power guy.

I’m not sure what to make of Low-A third baseman Matt Davidson. On one hand, he’s batting .353 with four homers and a .560 SLG. On another hand, he’s got a 33/2 K/BB ratio. He’s just 19, so he has time to improve, but I’m not ready to jump on the bandwagon yet.

Bobby Borchering is another solid 19-year-old third base prospect, albeit with standard “good all-around” numbers, not Davidson’s wacky stat line.

SUMMARY: Reynolds is already in Arizona, so all the team needs is for one of Allen, Wheeler, Goldschmidt, Davidson, and Borchering to work out as the long-term first baseman. The odds of one of those five becoming a well-above-average major league hitter are strong.

COMPARED TO THE PADRES: Hmm…The Padres have quite a bit of third base depth too, with James Darnell, Edinson Rincon, and of course Chase Headley. Kyle Blanks has the potential to be as good as Reynolds. I’ll give Arizona the slight edge for depth reasons and because Reynolds is more proven than Blanks or even Headley.

MIDDLE INFIELD

The Diamondbacks might lead the league in fun, interesting second basemen in their mid-to-late 20’s. Kelly Johnson, Rusty Ryal, Tony Abreu, and Ryan Roberts are all offensively-oriented players capable of putting up .800+ OPS figures.

Still just 27, shortstop Stephen Drew is a solid contributor as well.

Beyond that, however, the system is barren. The only other guy worth mentioning is Low-A shortstop Chris Owings, an 18-year-old with good feel for hitting, gap power, and no plate discipline (.316/.342/.482). Owings is also not too good defensively, and is likely to be a second or third baseman in the majors.

SUMMARY: A very top-heavy part of Arizona’s system. They’re likely to get average-to-above-average production here in the short term, but long-term outlook is a major concern.

COMPARED TO THE PADRES: The Diamondbacks lack upside in the middle infield, while the Padres are absolutely stacked with it. This one goes to San Diego.

OUTFIELD

Justin Upton is likely to be a superstar, and Cole Gillespie, Gerardo Parra, and Chris Young are solid young major league players.

Cyle Hankerd and Doug Deeds have wildly inconsistent minor league track records, but could be bench bats in the majors.

Evan Frey and Collin Cowgill could also have fourth outfielder futures.

Speedster Ollie Linton has some potential, although he’s a bit reckless on the basepaths. He has a patient approach, a plus for young speedsters, but very little power. He’s also old (24) for his level (Double-A).

Marc Krauss is a 2009 second-rounder who isn’t much defensively, but could wind up as a solid offensive player in the big leagues. The 22-year-old is currently hitting .346/.419/.587 in his first full pro season, although the Cal League can mess with numbers.

Keon Broxton is another player to watch. The Low-A outfielder just turned 20 and has plenty of tools. He’s a plus center fielder with plus power and speed, but needs to cut down on his swing some and work on his pitch recognition. A very intriguing talent if he pulls it all together.

A.J. Pollock was a first-round pick last year, but he’s missed all of 2010 after elbow surgery which is expected to keep him out until at least around the All-Star break. Already 22 and without a huge plus tool, Pollock (to me) is an overrated prospect. I see him as yet another fourth outfielder type in the Reed Johnson mold, and he’ll have to move fast to make an impact.

SUMMARY: Upton is a great centerpiece not just for an outfield, but for a franchise, but beyond him, there’s not too much to buy into. Chris Young’s bizarre career keeps me from buying into him as a well-above-average player, and neither Parra nor Gillespie are going to be All-Stars. The only plus minor leaguers of note are far away in Broxton and Pollock.

COMPARED TO THE PADRES: Well, the Diamondbacks are the opposite of the Padres—all their talent in the outfield is basically at or near the big league level, while San Diego’s is primarily in A-ball. They could end up equal if Jaff Decker pans out and Donavan Tate lives up to the hype, but you have to take proven commodities over A-ball guys, so Arizona wins here.

STARTING PITCHING

Dan Haren isn’t young, but he’s the sort of guy likely to be around in Arizona for a while.

Edwin Jackson is still just 26, but he’s been around for a long time, so it’s not like he’s miles away from free agency. It’s anyone’s guess as to where he is in a few years.

Ian Kennedy is a solid starting pitcher.

Cesar Valdez is a finesse/changeup/groundball type who I think is a bit underrated, and should be a nice fourth or fifth starter. He’s currently Arizona’s fifth starter, and has made two starts.

Billy Buckner pitched far better than his 6.40 major league ERA would indicate last year, but he’s now 26 and it’s unclear if Arizona will give him another big league chance.

Another finesse guy who’s gotten a bit of big league time, Bryan Augenstein has yet to solve Triple-A hitting. He has fifth starter potential.

Josh Collmenter is an interesting pitcher: a big righty with average velocity, two good offspeed pitches, and a tendency to keep hitters off balance. Similar to some Japanese, Mexican, and Cuban pitchers, Collmenter even has some trick pitches in his arsenal, like an eephus and a knuckleball. He won’t be an ace, but this skillset got Dallas Braden a perfect game yesterday, so it can work.

Top prospect Jarrod Parker is overrated in my opinion. He’s got solid stuff, but doesn’t have the silly numbers of most top prospects. He’ll be a fine pitcher, but I see him as a mid-rotation rock or power reliever more than an ace.

The D’backs AA rotation has three more back-of-the-rotation hopefuls in Barry Enright, Wes Roemer, and Bryan Shaw.

The High-A rotation doesn’t have anyone noteworthy, but the Low-A rotation has some promise, starting with Eric Smith, a pitch-mixer who could at least be a solid reliever in the majors.

Chase Anderson is a sleeper who likely will end up a reliever in the end, but is making a slight bit of noise in Low-A at age 22.

Last year’s twelfth-rounder, Charles Brewer has been dominant in the low minors, and isn’t purely a pitchability guy, reaching the mid-90’s on occasion. He could be a good sleeper.

Lefties Mike Belfiore and Patrick Schuster have middle-of-the-rotation potential, but neither is anywhere near the majors.

SUMMARY: This system reminds me a lot of San Diego’s. There are plenty of interesting mid-to-back-of-the-rotation candidates, like Valdez, Buckner, Collmenter, Brewer, and Belfiore, but there is a distinct lack of projectable guys who could wind up dominating.

COMPARED TO THE PADRES: With Simon Castro and Mat Latos, the Padres have a better one-two punch of young arms, but they also don’t have a proven ace like Haren. Call it even.

RELIEF PITCHING

Juan Gutierrez and Esmerling Vasquez are two solid young relievers already in the majors.

Daniel Stange is another young major leaguer, although he’s likely a middle reliever for the bulk of his career.

Hard-throwing lefty Jordan Norberto got a taste of the majors earlier this year, and has tremendous potential if he consistently throws strikes.

Recently acquired Carlos Rosa has the potential to be a very good relief pitcher.

Clay Zavada and his handlebar mustache had a nice year in the majors last year, but he walked 10 batters in three innings in Triple-A and was promptly DL’ed. What happens next is anyone’s guess.

Converted outfielder Leyson Septimo throws very hard, but can’t keep the ball in the strike zone. He needs vastly improved command for his stuff to lead him anywhere.

Roque Mercedes and Kyler Newby have big-league potential, although neither has particularly huge upside.

A conversion to relief seems to have helped Brett Moorhouse go from nobody to sleeper, but his control is spotty and he lacks a playable breaking pitch.

Bryan Woodall is old for A-ball, but has met with tremendous success thanks to a plus slider. He’s a nice sleeper.

Chris Odegaard is a low-round draft pick who, like Moorhouse, has seen a big strikeout increase upon moving to relief. A very deep sleeper.

SUMMARY: There aren’t a whole lot of young relievers that could become shutdown major leaguers. Then again, the best relievers are often converted starters, so it’s not a huge deal.

COMPARED TO THE PADRES: The Padres by a huge margin, both on current talent and minor league depth.